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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-09-14 10:49:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140849 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 A 0246 UTC GMI overpass shows that the circulation of Sixteen-E may finally be losing definition. However, a burst of deep convection has persisted on the western side of the circulation since that time and Dvorak estimates have actually increased to 30-35 kt. Since the overall shear cloud pattern has not changed substantially since the previous advisory, the intensity has been held at 30 kt for now. Although regular convective bursts have helped to maintain a circulation, this is not expected to continue for long. The dynamical guidance continues to show that the depression will quickly open up into a surface trough as a result of strong vertical wind shear associated with the low-level inflow and upper-level outflow of Hurricane Odile. It is worth noting that 24 hours ago, many of those same models had forecast that Sixteen would have already opened into a remnant trough by now. Given the hostile environment, the NHC forecast still shows weakening into a remnant low within 24 hours and complete dissipation by 36 hours. The depression is accelerating around the circulation of Hurricane Odile and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 080/10. There is decent agreement among the models that the depression, or its remnants, will continue to rotate around Hurricane Odile during the next day or so. The official forecast is very close to the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS models for the 24 hours before dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 14.9N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 15.5N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.1N 111.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (EP1/EP162014)
2014-09-14 10:46:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MAINTAINING STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 14 the center of SIXTEEN-E was located near 14.9, -115.3 with movement ESE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 12
2014-09-14 10:46:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 140846 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 ...DEPRESSION MAINTAINING STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 115.3W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MONDAY MORNING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2014-09-14 10:46:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 140846 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 0900 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 12
2014-09-14 10:45:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140845 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 0900 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 115.3W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 115.3W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N 113.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.1N 111.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 115.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN
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