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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2021-07-30 22:38:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Jul 2021 20:38:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Jul 2021 21:28:37 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-07-30 22:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 302037 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 An area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring during the past several days over the eastern Pacific, has developed a well-defined surface center, as indicated in a recent scatterometer overpass, and has acquired sufficient organized convection to be classified as a 25-kt tropical depression. The northwesterly shear which has been curtailing genesis over the past couple of days has diminished just enough to allow the system to become better organized, particularly, in the east and south portions of the cyclone. The depression is embedded in weak easterly steering currents created by a deep-layer cut-off low and associated trough situated along 125W. As a result, the depression is temporarily drifting west-southwestward, or 255/4 kt. Large-scale models indicate that the cut-off feature will lift northward during the next 24-36 hours allowing a mid-tropospheric ridge to build in over the eastern Pacific. Accordingly, the cyclone should track generally westward at an increased forward speed beyond mid period. The official forecast follows suit and is based on a blend of the top forecast track performers, HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and the multi-model consensus TVCN. Now that the shear is weakening and the upper tropospheric winds are predicted to become more favorable, (easterly, and little more diffluent) steady strengthening is expected while the cyclone traverses deep, warm oceanic temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast is near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and the IVCN intensity aid and is below the Decay-SHIPS statistical-dynamical guidance beyond the 72-hour period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 12.3N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 12.0N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 11.7N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 11.7N 127.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 11.8N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 12.1N 131.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 12.5N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 13.2N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 13.9N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2020-08-09 04:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 02:37:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 02:37:55 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-09 04:36:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 the center of Nine-E was located near 14.7, -102.6 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-08-09 04:36:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020 305 WTPZ34 KNHC 090236 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 102.6W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 102.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will remain well offshore of the coast of Mexico for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the cyclone is likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday and a hurricane by late Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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