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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-08 10:49:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 080849 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 26(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 22(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 16(17) 32(49) 3(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) 1(18) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-08 10:49:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 8 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 18.5, -107.1 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-08 10:49:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 410 WTPZ25 KNHC 080848 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO SANTA FE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 107.1W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 107.1W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 107.0W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.1N 107.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.0N 108.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.3N 111.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.3N 112.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.9N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.1N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.6N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 107.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 08/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 3
2021-09-08 10:49:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 412 WTPZ35 KNHC 080848 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 107.1W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur to Santa Fe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 107.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with an increasing forward speed through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move just to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. It could then become a short-lived hurricane Thursday or Thursday night. Weakening is expected on Friday when the system moves over colder waters. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday, spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-08 07:41:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION NOT MOVING MUCH OFF THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 12:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 8 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 18.3, -107.3 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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