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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-16 04:42:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 16.0, -125.4 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 18
2017-09-16 04:41:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 160241 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 125.4W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 125.4W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 125.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.9N 125.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.9N 126.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.3N 126.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.8N 126.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N 126.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 127.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 18.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 125.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-15 22:45:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 20:45:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 20:45:27 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 17
2017-09-15 22:39:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152039 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 A cluster of deep convection, albeit small, has become more concentrated near the center of circulation, indicating that the shear has diminished. However, a recent ASCAT pass indicated that the maximum winds remain 30 kt. The lower shear and warm sea surface temperatures should allow the depression to gradually strengthen over the next couple of days, although since dry air has been ingested into the circulation, that intensification will probably be slow. The new NHC forecast shows a slightly lower peak intensity compared to the previous forecast, following the latest model trends. Weakening is likely by days 4 and 5, and the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low at the end of the forecast period due to stronger shear and marginal sea surface temperatures. The depression has slowed down and is moving westward, or 270/3 kt. The subtropical ridge is expected to push the depression west- southwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours, but after that time, a break in the ridge will allow the cyclone to turn northward through day 3. A re-establishment of the ridge should cause the cyclone to turn back toward the west on days 4 and 5. There were no significant changes required on this forecast package, and the NHC forecast generally lies close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 16.0N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.8N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 15.8N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 16.0N 126.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 16.5N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 17.7N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 18.4N 126.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 18.1N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-15 22:38:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL HAS 35-MPH WINDS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 16.0, -125.3 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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