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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2021-09-07 22:40:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 072040 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 21(25) 11(36) X(36) X(36) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 11(29) X(29) X(29) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 9(10) 44(54) 16(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 13(13) 17(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 7(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) 1(23) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152021)

2021-09-07 22:40:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 7 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 18.2, -107.9 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 1

2021-09-07 22:40:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 072040 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 107.9W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected by tonight, and this motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from the depression are likely to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco through tonight. SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect the portions of the southern Baja California peninsula by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-09-07 22:40:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 072040 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.9W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.9W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.4N 108.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 108.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.0N 109.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.4N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.4N 113.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.5N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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