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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-16 16:51:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 14:51:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 15:45:30 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 20
2017-09-16 16:39:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 161439 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Deep convection associated with the depression has increased this morning, with the low-level center estimated to be near the middle of the thunderstorm activity. Based on the improved organization of the cloud pattern since the time of the ASCAT pass overnight, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 30 kt. The depression is over relatively warm SSTs and embedded in fairly low wind shear conditions, but it also is situated in a dry atmospheric environment. These mixed factors should cause the system to remain relatively steady state for the next few days, though it is possible that the cyclone becomes a tropical storm during that time frame. Beyond a few days, the wind shear is expected to increase and SSTs lower along the expected path. These more hostile conditions should cause the depression to weaken and become a remnant low in 4 to 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and in line with the bulk of the guidance. The tropical cyclone continues to drift westward in weak steering currents. The models are in agreement that the depression should turn slowly northward during the next day or two when it moves along the west side of a weak mid-level ridge. Once the system loses convection, a turn back toward the west is predicted. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 15.8N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 15.9N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 16.3N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 16.9N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 17.6N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 18.2N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 17.8N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 16.7N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2017-09-16 16:39:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 161439 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-16 16:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER OPEN WATERS FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 15.8, -126.5 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 20
2017-09-16 16:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 161438 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER OPEN WATERS FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 126.5W ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 126.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward motion is expected to begin in a day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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