je.st
news
Tag: fifteene
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 19
2017-09-16 10:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 160853 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 ...WEAK DEPRESSION CONTINUES DRIFTING WEST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 126.0W ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 126.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). Very little motion is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 19
2017-09-16 10:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 160853 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 126.0W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 126.0W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 125.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.7N 126.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.1N 126.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.6N 126.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.7N 126.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 128.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 17.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 126.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2017-09-16 06:17:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 160417 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 3 7(10) 3(13) 3(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 6(16) X(16) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-16 04:47:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 02:47:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 02:47:36 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 18
2017-09-16 04:42:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160242 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 For the past several days, convection has developed repeatedly near the center of the depression, only to dissipate a few hours later. This trend has continued today, and the depression is currently at a convective minimum. The intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. Despite the lack of intensification so far, most of the guidance continues to show that the depression will become a tropical storm sometime in the next couple of days. Only the LGEM keeps the system weak throughout the forecast, though so far that has been a good forecast. For now, my forecast continues to follow the intensity consensus and shows very gradual weakening over the next couple of days. Given the low shear and moderate SSTs, it would still be a little surprising if the depression never strengthens. The depression continues to slow down, and is now drifting westward at about 2 kt. Very little change has been made to the track forecast, and the global models continue to show little motion for the next day or so while the cyclone remains trapped in weak steering flow. After about 24 h, a slow turn toward the north is expected in response to a mid-level trough located well to the north. A turn back toward the west should occur once the subtropical ridge becomes re-established around day 4. The NHC forecast remains near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 16.0N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 15.9N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 15.9N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 16.3N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 16.8N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 18.0N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 18.5N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 18.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] next »