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Hurricane Juliette Public Advisory Number 13

2019-09-04 11:38:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 040846 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...JULIETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 116.4W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 116.4 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Houston

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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 13

2019-09-04 11:38:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 040845 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.4W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.4W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 126.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 23.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON

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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 13

2019-09-04 10:47:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040846 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 The appearance of Juliette in satellite continues to show a weakening trend early this morning. Multiple warm spots are evident in infrared imagery, but there has not been a consistent well-defined eye during the past several hours. The latest subjective and objective T-numbers provided by the satellite fix agencies also continue to show gradual weakening. Based on this input, the initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this advisory. Note that a 0410z ASCAT pass was used to adjust the initial wind radii for this advisory. The apparent motion appears to be somewhat slower than the previous 12 hours. For this advisory, the initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 300/5 kt. Juliette is being steered by the circulation around a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. This feature is expected to steer Juliette west-northwestward during the next few days. Toward the end of the forecast period, a westward motion is forecast as Juliette weakens and loses most of its deep convection. The weakening system will then likely be steered by the low-level easterly flow. The latest track forecast is close to the previous advisory package, with some nudging toward the most recent NOAA HFIP HCCA, ECMWF ensemble mean, and the GFEX consensus model. Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, an intruding dry, stable, surrounding environment, and increasing southwesterly shear should cause steady weakening of the cyclone during the next 5 days. The latest intensity forecast is showing a slightly faster weakening trend compared with the previous advisory package. Note that much of the guidance suggests the weakening trend may be even faster than the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 19.1N 116.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 23.0N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 23.0N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 23.0N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Houston

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Hurricane Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2019-09-04 10:46:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 040846 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 4 71(75) 15(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 20N 120W 50 1 19(20) 29(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 120W 64 X 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON

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