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Hurricane Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2019-09-03 04:33:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 030233 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 92 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ISLA CLARION 64 70 2(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 51 21(72) 2(74) X(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) 20N 115W 50 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 55(78) 14(92) X(92) X(92) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 26(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 20(35) X(35) X(35) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 12(34) X(34) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 8

2019-09-03 04:32:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 030232 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.0W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 70SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.0W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.6W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 117.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 119.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.4N 123.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 127.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.1N 131.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 114.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Hurricane Juliette Graphics

2019-09-02 22:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 20:37:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 20:37:33 GMT

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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 7

2019-09-02 22:36:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 022036 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 Juliette is clearly on the upswing. A banding eye is present in visible and IR imagery, and satellite intensity estimates around 1800 UTC were all near 65 kt. The IR presentation of the cyclone has continued to improve since then and the initial intensity has been raised to 70 kt, making making Juliette the 5th hurricane of the eastern North Pacific season, and the first hurricane in that basin since July 31. The hurricane has quickly strengthened today and I see no reason why this won't continue for the next 12 to 24 hours. Rapid intensification still seems like a distinct possibility, though the intensity guidance certainly suggests otherwise. It is surprising that none of the guidance shows Juliette strengthening very quickly during the next day or two despite the apparent favorable environment the hurricane is embedded within and the current intensification trend. The NHC forecast remains above all of the intensity models for the first 48 hours, given the impressive structure of the hurricane. Beyond that time, the forecast is again close to the multi-model consensus and shows Juliette weakening quickly as it moves over cooler SSTs and into a dry environment. Juliette has slowed down and the initial motion is now 305/10 kt. There is no change in the forecast reasoning, and Juliette is still generally expected to be steered west-northwestward by an extensive deep-layer ridge located to the north and northeast of the cyclone. The models remain in very good agreement on the forecast of Juliette for the first 3 or 4 days of the forecast, and confidence remains high through that period. The global models then vary on the strength of the ridge and the model spread is notably higher by the end of the forecast. For now, the NHC forecast continues to split the various models and closely follows the multi-model consensus at all times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 17.2N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 18.6N 115.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 19.1N 117.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 21.1N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 24.0N 131.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2019-09-02 22:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 022035 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 96 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 44 39(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) ISLA CLARION 64 11 41(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 15N 115W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 11 47(58) 6(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 115W 50 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 44(55) 34(89) X(89) X(89) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 43(56) X(56) X(56) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 1(31) X(31) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 19(32) X(32) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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