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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-09-03 22:36:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 032036 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Juliette has leveled off in intensity this afternoon with the eye becoming cloud filled, and the eyewall convection weakening in the northeastern quadrant. The initial wind speed remains 110 kt for this advisory, and it is probable Juliette is about to go on a downhill trend. This is supported by gradually cooling waters during the next few days along with the hurricane becoming more embedded in the dry mid-level environment of the eastern Pacific north of 20N. Models remain in very good agreement, so the latest NHC intensity prediction is basically an update of the previous one and is within 5 kt of the intensity consensus at all times. The initial motion has turned a little more to the left and slowed, now 295/6 kt. There's been no change to the synoptic pattern with a large ridge over the southwestern United States providing a seemingly reliable steering current during the next several days, gradually bending the hurricane westward with time and speeding it up due to the ridge building to the north. The only minor change to report is a small westward trend noted in the bulk of the models, similar to the previous advisory. Thus the new forecast is adjusted in that direction, close to the eastern Pacific model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 18.6N 115.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.1N 121.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 22.6N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 23.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2019-09-03 22:31:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 032031 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 68 1(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 20N 115W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 2 19(21) 63(84) 8(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 20N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 44(46) 16(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 21(21) 13(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 2(24) X(24) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) 1(19) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-03 22:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE MOVING AWAY FROM CLARION ISLAND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Juliette was located near 18.6, -115.6 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Juliette Public Advisory Number 11
2019-09-03 22:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 032031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...JULIETTE MOVING AWAY FROM CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 115.6W ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 115.6 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Juliette is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A Mexican Navy station on Clarion Island was still reporting huricane-force wind gusts during the past hour. The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 11
2019-09-03 22:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 032031 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 115.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 121.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.6N 125.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 23.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 115.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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