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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 5

2019-09-04 22:31:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 042031 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 04 2019 Recent microwave data suggest that Gabrielle continues to gradually become better organized, and the last few GOES-16 images show a convective burst forming over the center. The initial intensity is estimated at 45 kt based on the Dvorak number from TAFB and an earlier ASCAT pass from this morning, but it's possible that this intensity estimate may be conservative. The storm could intensify a little more in the short-term, but overall it is expected to remain in a marginal environment during the next couple of days, characterized by moderate southerly to southwesterly wind shear, low values of mid-level relative humidity and SSTs near 26-27C. Little overall change in strength is predicted during the next two days. Thereafter, some strengthening is likely as Gabrielle moves on the northeastern side of an upper-level low into a lower shear region, at the same time the cyclone moves over warmer water. The new NHC intensity forecast shows Gabrielle reaching hurricane strength in about 5 days, which is consistent with the latest HWRF, NOAA corrected-consensus and COAMPS-TC models. The initial motion is estimated at 325/8. For the next 5 days, Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break in the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge. An increase in forward speed is expected due to the gradient between an upper-level low to the west and the ridge to the northeast. The latest models have shifted a little to the west for the point of recurvature in about 5 days, and the official forecast splits the difference between the previous NHC forecast and the latest various consensus models in the day 4 to 5 time period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 21.0N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 21.7N 34.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 22.8N 35.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 24.2N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 30.0N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 33.0N 47.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 36.5N 48.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake/Hagen

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Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)

2019-09-04 22:31:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GABRIELLE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 4 the center of Gabrielle was located near 21.0, -34.0 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2019-09-04 22:31:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 042031 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/HAGEN

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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 5

2019-09-04 22:30:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 042030 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 34.0W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 34.0W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 33.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 34.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.8N 35.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.2N 37.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.0N 43.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 33.0N 47.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 36.5N 48.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 34.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/HAGEN

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