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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-09-06 10:50:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060850 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 Poorly defined Gabrielle has not produced any organized deep convection since Thursday morning, and what remains of the showers and thunderstorms, is displaced nearly 200 miles north of the elongated surface circulation. Consequently, Gabrielle can no longer be classified as a tropical cyclone and has degenerated into a 35 kt post-tropical cyclone. Statistical-dynamical models, as well as the large-scale guidance, show that strong shear, along with mid-tropospheric dry air intrusion, should continue to inhibit convective development during the next 24 h or so, and cause further weakening into a remnant low. Around mid-period, the shear is forecast to decrease and the upper wind pattern becomes more diffluent. Additionally, Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will be traversing significantly warmer oceanic sea surface temperatures. As a result, the cyclone is forecast to redevelop organized deep convection, and more than likely, re-strengthen. In fact, some of the intensity guidance shows Gabrielle becoming a hurricane in 4 days before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone at the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of the HFIP HCCA, and the deterministic guidance beyond day 3. The initial motion is estimated to be an accelerating northwestward motion, or 315/10 kt. The global and regional models are in rather good agreement that the post-tropical cyclone will gradually turn toward the west-northwest during the next 48 hours, before recurving northward and then northeastward early next week in response to an approaching major shortwave mid-latitude trough from the northwest. The official forecast track is just a little to the left of the previous one, and is very close to the TVCA simple multi-model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 25.5N 37.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1800Z 27.1N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0600Z 29.2N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1800Z 30.7N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 08/0600Z 31.9N 47.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 35.6N 48.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 40.4N 44.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 47.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2019-09-06 10:50:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 060849 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)
2019-09-06 10:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 6 the center of Gabrielle was located near 25.5, -37.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Public Advisory Number 11
2019-09-06 10:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 060849 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 ...GABRIELLE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 37.6W ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1060 MI...1710 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 37.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north are forecast to occur by Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gabrielle is expected to weaken into a post-tropical remnant low by tonight. Thereafter, slow strengthening is expected to occur over the weekend, and the remnants of Gabrielle is forecast to regenerate into a tropical cyclone at that time. Post-tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, located over 1000 miles southwest of the Azores, is expected to regenerate into a tropical cyclone within the next couple of days as the system moves west-northwestward at 17 mph over the open Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on Post-tropical Cyclone Gabrielle can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 11
2019-09-06 10:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060849 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 37.6W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 0SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 37.6W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 37.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.1N 39.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.2N 41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.7N 44.8W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 31.9N 47.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 35.6N 48.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 40.4N 44.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 47.0N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 37.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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