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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Graphics
2019-09-04 10:55:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 08:55:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 09:38:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-09-04 10:54:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040854 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019 A late-arriving ASCAT-C scatterometer pass revealed peak surface winds of 33 kt in the northwestern quadrant, and satellite imagery since then indicates a marked increase in the deep convection, albeit sheared to the northeast of the well-defined low-level center noted in the scatterometer data. Based on these wind data and a satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gabrielle, the seventh named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial motion is 310/09 kt. The initial position was adjusted slightly to the southwest of the previous positions based on the aforementioned scatterometer data. This has resulted in the new forecast track being shifted a little to the left of the previous advisory track at all forecast times. For the next 5 days, Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break in the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge located between 40W-50W longitude. The official forecast track lies close to a blend of the tightly packed consensus models TVCN, TVCX, and NOAA-HCCA. During the entire forecast period, Gabrielle is forecast to remain in a marginally conducive environment characterized by moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt, SSTs of 26-27 deg C, and dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 50 percent. As a result, only slight strengthening is forecast through 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the HCCA consensus intensity model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 19.6N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 20.3N 34.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 21.1N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 22.1N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 23.4N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 27.5N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 31.5N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 35.5N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-09-04 10:54:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 040854 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-09-04 10:54:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 040853 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 33.6W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 33.6W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 33.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 34.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 35.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.1N 36.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.4N 37.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.5N 41.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 31.5N 44.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 35.5N 47.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 33.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)
2019-09-04 10:54:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 4 the center of Gabrielle was located near 19.6, -33.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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