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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 6

2019-09-05 04:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 050231 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 04 2019 South to southwesterly shear is affecting the overall organization of Gabrielle this evening. A recent scatterometer pass indicated that the low-level center was located on the southern edge of weakening convection, and to the south of a mid-level circulation apparent in infrared satellite imagery. This same scatterometer pass showed an expanded wind field in the northwest quadrant as well as 45-kt peak winds, and this initial intensity is in agreement with the latest subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. The shear is not expected to abate for the next 48 hours, and sea surface temperatures are forecast to remain marginal through 36 hours. Therefore little to no change in intensity is expected from Gabrielle during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, shear is expected to decrease for a few days while the cyclone moves over waters warmer than 28 C. This should allow for some gradual intensification, and Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous one and very near the intensity from the corrected consensus HCCA. Gabrielle has been moving northwestward or 325/6 kt. This motion should continue for the next day or so as the cyclone is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. After that time, a mid- to upper-level low is forecast to develop to the west of Gabrielle, which will help to increase the forward motion late this week and over the weekend. There was a notable westward shift in the guidance beyond 72 hours possibly due to the interaction of the cyclone with the aforementioned upper low. After 96 hours, an approaching mid-latitude trough will begin to turn Gabrielle to the north then northeast. The official forecast track is very similar to the previous one through 72 hours, and was shifted slightly westward thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 21.5N 34.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 22.4N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 23.7N 36.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 25.4N 38.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 27.3N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 30.8N 44.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 34.0N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 37.5N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)

2019-09-05 04:30:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GABRIELLE MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY WHILE MOVING NORTHWEST OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 4 the center of Gabrielle was located near 21.5, -34.4 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Public Advisory Number 6

2019-09-05 04:30:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 050230 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 04 2019 ...GABRIELLE MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY WHILE MOVING NORTHWEST OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 34.4W ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 34.4 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days with an increase in forward speed expected late this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Some slow strengthening is then expected to begin by this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 6

2019-09-05 04:30:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 050230 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 34.4W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 40SE 50SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 34.4W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 34.2W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.4N 35.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 40SE 50SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.7N 36.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.4N 38.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.3N 40.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 30.8N 44.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 34.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 37.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 34.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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