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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
2017-08-28 11:04:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 09:04:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 09:24:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 32
2017-08-28 10:57:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 280856 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Harvey is producing intense convection in bands over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. This is resulting in the continuation of very heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. There have been reports of 2-day rainfall totals of close to 30 inches in the Greater Houston area. With the additional rains that are expected over the next several days, rainfall totals could reach 50 inches in some locations, which would be historic for the area. The initial intensity estimate remains 35 kt, based on the assumption that winds of this strength are occuring in some of the stronger bands. Since Harvey is forecast to be back over water just offshore of the coast during the next couple of days, there is some potential for restrengthening. Significant strengthening is not anticipated, however, due to the system's lack of an inner core and strong southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough over Texas. Radar and surface observations indicate that the center is moving slowly southeastward, or 130/3 kt. A mid-level trough dropping into the Ohio Valley should cause Harvey to turn toward the east and northeast and move back over land in a couple of days. The official track forecast remains close to the dynamical model consensus. Although the tropical storm warning may need to be extended eastward along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts later this morning, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flooding continue to be the primary threats. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast, with isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 2. The flood threat is spreading farther east into Louisiana. Additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected in southwestern Louisiana, with rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches expected in south-central Louisiana. Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 28.6N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 28.4N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 29/0600Z 28.1N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 29/1800Z 28.3N 95.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 30/0600Z 29.0N 94.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 31/0600Z 31.0N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/0600Z 33.4N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/0600Z 35.0N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2017-08-28 10:56:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 280855 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0900 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) 1(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 4(20) X(20) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 11(18) 3(21) X(21) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 11(18) 2(20) 1(21) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 5( 6) 14(20) 9(29) 4(33) X(33) X(33) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 11(12) 4(16) 1(17) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 17(23) 3(26) 1(27) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 13(30) 2(32) X(32) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 13(25) 11(36) 2(38) X(38) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 15(24) 2(26) 1(27) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KOUNTZE TX 34 18 1(19) 4(23) 7(30) 8(38) 1(39) X(39) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 18 2(20) 7(27) 9(36) 7(43) 1(44) X(44) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GALVESTON TX 50 2 1( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FREEPORT TX 50 3 1( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) FREEPORT TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 950W 50 4 3( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MATAGORDA TX 50 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MATAGORDA TX 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 59 12(71) 4(75) 1(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) PORT O CONNOR 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKPORT TX 34 6 5(11) 5(16) 2(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 270N 960W 34 13 7(20) 5(25) 2(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-28 10:55:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 the center of Harvey was located near 28.6, -96.3 with movement SE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 32
2017-08-28 10:55:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 280855 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 96.3W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 130 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mesquite Bay to High Island Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern Texas, and flash flood emergencies are in effect for portions of this area. Please see warnings and other products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast and in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of Harvey. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 96.3 West. Harvey is moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a slow southeastward motion is expected today. A slow northeastward motion is expected to begin on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey is forecast to move off the middle Texas coast this morning, and remain just offshore through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight restrengthening is possible after the center moves off the coast later today and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches through Friday over the upper Texas coast and into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/ Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding, and flash flood emergencies are in effect for portions of southeastern Texas. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south into the middle Texas coast, farther west toward the Texas Hill Country, and farther east across south- central Louisiana. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas to Morgan City including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in rain bands well to the east of the center of Harvey, including portions of the tropical storm warning area along the coast. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist in areas of onshore winds within the warning area during the next couple of days. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight from the upper Texas coast across parts of southwestern and south-central Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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