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Tropical Storm Harvey Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2017-08-27 17:31:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 27 Aug 2017 15:31:29 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-27 17:16:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INCLUDING GREATER HOUSTON... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 the center of Harvey was located near 29.0, -97.4 with movement SSE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 29
2017-08-27 17:16:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 271454 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INCLUDING GREATER HOUSTON... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 97.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF VICTORIA TEXAS ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning for the coast of Texas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port O'Connor to Sargent Texas Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is occurring in southeastern Texas, and flash flood emergencies are in effect for portions of this area. Please see warnings and other products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 97.4 West. Harvey is moving toward the south-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slow southeastward to east-southeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center will move very near the coast of southeastern Texas. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily over water to the east and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches through Friday over the middle and upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches in this region. These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life- threatening flooding, and flash flood emergencies are in effect for portions of southeastern Texas. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and other products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this dire and life-threatening situation. Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south toward the lower Texas coast, farther west toward the Texas Hill Country, and farther east through southwest and central Louisiana. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas to High Island including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in an area near the center and over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the coast. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist in areas of onshore flow within the warning area during the next day or so. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight near the middle and upper Texas coast into southwest Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
2017-08-27 17:00:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Aug 2017 15:00:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Aug 2017 15:24:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 29
2017-08-27 16:58:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 271458 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Harvey continues to meander over southeastern Texas, where it is producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding rainfall. NWS radars show that bands of deep convection continue to develop over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and train over portions of southeastern Texas, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. Rainfall amounts greater than 20-25 inches have already been reported and flash flood emergencies and warnings have been issued by local National Weather Service offices for a large portion of southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected over the next several days, and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center is now forecasting isolated storm total amounts of 50 inches. These historic rainfall amounts will exacerbate the already dire and life-threatening situation. Surface observations of winds 30-35 kt within a band of convection over the western Gulf of Mexico and along the coast of Texas support an initial intensity of 35 kt. The latest track guidance show Harvey moving slowly southeastward for the next 24 to 36 hours and the center is likely to move very close to the coast, or even offshore, between 24-48 hours. After that time, Harvey is expected to begin a northward motion which should take it inland over eastern Texas later in the period. Since a large portion of the circulation is expected to remain over water during the next several days, Harvey is maintained as a tropical storm through 72 hours. However, the strongest winds are likely to occur over the Gulf waters. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches are expected, with isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches, through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 29.0N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 28.6N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1200Z 28.4N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0000Z 28.2N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 29/1200Z 28.2N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 30/1200Z 29.3N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/1200Z 30.9N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/1200Z 32.2N 95.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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