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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-28 01:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...UNPRECEDENTED FLOODING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 the center of Harvey was located near 28.9, -96.8 with movement SE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2017-08-27 23:27:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 27 Aug 2017 21:27:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
2017-08-27 22:52:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Aug 2017 20:52:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Aug 2017 21:22:42 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 30
2017-08-27 22:47:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 272046 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 The unprecedented flooding rainfall event continues to unfold over a large area of southeastern Texas. While Harvey has been moving slowly eastward or east-southeastward today, bands of heavy rainfall have continued to form over the northwestern Gulf and train inland over much of the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Storm total rainfall amounts in the 20-27 inch range are quite common in the Greater Houston area, and additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected over the next several days. Rainfall total could reach 50 inches in some locations, which would be historic for that area. Harvey is still producing tropical-storm-force winds, with a recent observation of 34 kt with a gust to 46 kt at New Braunfels, Texas. The NHC track guidance is in better agreement showing Harvey moving just offshore of the Texas coast on Monday, then turning northward and moving inland over northeastern Texas by 72 hours. All of the global models show some slight deepening of the system after it moves over water, but given the lack of an inner core, significant strengthening is not anticipated. Although a tropical storm watch has been issued, which may need to be extended eastward along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast tonight, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flooding continue to the primary threats. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches are expected, with isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches, through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 29.0N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 28/0600Z 28.7N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1800Z 28.4N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 29/0600Z 28.2N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 29/1800Z 28.4N 95.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 30/1800Z 29.9N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/1800Z 31.8N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/1800Z 33.5N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2017-08-27 22:46:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 272046 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 1(12) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 6(19) 1(20) 1(21) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 3(14) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 1(16) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 3(19) 1(20) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 10(21) 3(24) X(24) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) 3(19) 2(21) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 13(24) 3(27) 1(28) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 12(26) 3(29) 1(30) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 9 10(19) 7(26) 8(34) 7(41) 2(43) 1(44) GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 27 7(34) 2(36) 4(40) 6(46) 1(47) 1(48) HOUSTON TX 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 9 1(10) 1(11) 1(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) FREEPORT TX 34 33 12(45) 6(51) 3(54) 3(57) 1(58) X(58) FREEPORT TX 50 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 18(21) 14(35) 7(42) 5(47) 1(48) X(48) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 5( 7) 7(14) 10(24) 11(35) 3(38) X(38) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MATAGORDA TX 50 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) MATAGORDA TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 63 6(69) 3(72) 1(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) PORT O CONNOR 50 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) PORT O CONNOR 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ROCKPORT TX 34 21 9(30) 4(34) 2(36) 5(41) X(41) X(41) ROCKPORT TX 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 6 5(11) 3(14) 3(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 7( 8) 9(17) 6(23) 4(27) 1(28) X(28) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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