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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 28
2017-08-27 10:40:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 270840 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 ...HARVEY CAUSING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 97.7W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of Port O'Connor has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning south of Port O'Connor has also been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port O'Connor to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port O'Connor to Sargent Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 97.7 West. Harvey is moving toward the south-southwest near 1 mph (2 km/h), and a slow southeastward to east-southeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center will remain inland or move very near the coast of southeastern Texas through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey is likely to become a tropical depression by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. An NOS site near the entrance to Matagorda Bay recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through Thursday. Isolated storm totals may reach around 40 inches in this area. Rainfall of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. Elsewhere during the same time period, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south toward the lower Texas coast, farther west toward the the Texas Hill Country, and farther east through southwest and central Louisiana. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...1 to 3 ft Port O'Connor to Sargent...2 to 4 ft Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in an area near the center and over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the coast. These conditions are likely to persist through this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana should subside through this morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight near the middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2017-08-27 10:40:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 270840 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0900 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 2(13) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) GALVESTON TX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 7(16) 2(18) 1(19) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 7(16) 2(18) 1(19) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) AUSTIN TX 34 3 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 7 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) FREEPORT TX 34 3 4( 7) 6(13) 5(18) 6(24) 1(25) 1(26) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 5(20) 1(21) 1(22) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 8(13) 2(15) 1(16) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 12 9(21) 7(28) 3(31) 3(34) 1(35) X(35) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 37 8(45) 5(50) 1(51) 2(53) 1(54) X(54) PORT O CONNOR 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ROCKPORT TX 34 27 9(36) 4(40) 2(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) ROCKPORT TX 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 10 7(17) 4(21) 2(23) 3(26) X(26) 1(27) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) MCALLEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 28
2017-08-27 10:39:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 270839 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0900 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 97.7W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 97.7W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 97.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 29.0N 97.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.7N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.5N 96.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 28.5N 96.1W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.4N 95.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 30.8N 95.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 32.0N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 97.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-27 07:44:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES LITTLE... ...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 the center of Harvey was located near 29.3, -97.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 27A
2017-08-27 07:44:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 270544 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 ...HARVEY SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES LITTLE... ...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 97.4W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NW OF VICTORIA TEXAS ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Sargent Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 97.4 West. Harvey is nearly stationary. A drift toward the south or southeast is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey is expected to remain inland over southeastern Texas through Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey is likely to weaken to a tropical depression later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, the airport at Austin, Texas has reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust of 49 mph (80 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through Thursday. Isolated storm totals may reach around 40 inches in this area. Rainfall of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. Elsewhere during the same time period, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south toward the lower Texas coast, farther west toward the the Texas Hill Country, and farther east through southwest and central Louisiana. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas to Sargent...3 to 6 ft Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in an area near the center and over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the coast. These conditions are likely to persist through this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana should subside through this morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday near the middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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