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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2017-08-27 04:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 270246 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 1(14) HOUSTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 3(14) 2(16) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 1(14) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 4(14) 2(16) 1(17) FREEPORT TX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 8(17) 2(19) 1(20) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 7(13) 2(15) 1(16) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12) MATAGORDA TX 34 8 5(13) 5(18) 4(22) 7(29) 2(31) 1(32) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) ROCKPORT TX 34 14 10(24) 8(32) 4(36) 4(40) X(40) 1(41) ROCKPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 2 7( 9) 8(17) 4(21) 5(26) 2(28) X(28) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 1(15) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-27 04:45:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 the center of Harvey was located near 29.3, -97.3 with movement ENE at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 27
2017-08-27 04:45:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 270245 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 ...HARVEY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 97.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF VICTORIA TEXAS ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning and the Tropical Storm Warning are discontinued north of Sargent Texas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Sargent Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 97.3 West. Harvey is drifting east-northeastward. A drift toward the south or southeast is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey is expected to remain inland over southeastern Texas. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey is likely to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past few hours, the airport at New Braunfels, Texas has reported sustained winds of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through Thursday. Isolated storm totals may reach around 40 inches in this area. Rainfall of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. Elsewhere during the same time period, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south toward the lower Texas coast, farther west toward the the Texas Hill Country, and farther east through southwest and central Louisiana. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas to Sargent...3 to 6 ft Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in an area near the center and over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the coast. These conditions are likely to persist through Sunday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana should subside through Sunday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday near the middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 27
2017-08-27 04:45:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 270245 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE DISCONTINUED NORTH OF SARGENT TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO SARGENT TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO SARGENT TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 97.3W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 100SE 30SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 97.3W AT 27/0300Z...INLAND AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 97.4W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.1N 97.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 100SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.9N 97.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.5N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.4N 96.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 30.0N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.0N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 97.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-27 01:39:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 the center of Harvey was located near 29.2, -97.4 with movement ENE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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