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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-07-09 04:44:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090244 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 Visible satellite imagery indicates that the center of Fausto has pulled northwestward away from the main convective cloud mass and is now fully exposed in the middle of the larger scale cyclonic gyre. The initial intensity has been decreased to 35 kt based on satellite current intensity estimates of 35 kt and 39 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT, respectively. The initial motion is 290/16 kt, which is a 12-hour average motion. A recent northwestward jog in the track is believed to be a temporary motion, and Fausto is expected to turn back toward the west-northwest fairly soon. A strong ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to keep Fausto moving west-northwestward for the for the next 72 hours. After that, the cyclone is expected to weaken and become vertically shallow, being steered more westward by the brisk low-level trade wind flow. The official forecast track is a little to the right of and faster than the previous advisory, mainly due to the more northward initial position, and is similar to the consensus model TCVE. Fausto is experiencing light deep-layer vertical wind shear of less than 5 kt and the mid-level shear is only around 5 kt, so the sudden development of an exposed low-level circulation is perplexing. However, various water vapor products and microwave satellite imagery suggest that dry mid-level air has intruded into the inner core, disrupting the deep convection and allowing the low-level vortex to briefly decouple from the mid- and upper-level circulations. Further exacerbating these unfavorable conditions is a large disturbance located about 800 nmi to the northeast of the cyclone, which has been deflecting some of the southerly low-level inflow away from Fausto and into that system. The global models indicate that the shear will remain light for another 24 hours or so, and that Fausto and the aforementioned disturbance will begin to separate from each other in about 12 hours or so, which could allow for some slight re-strengthening. By 72 hours and beyond, however, northwesterly wind shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt, inducing significant weakening while the cyclone also moves over cooler water. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous advisory forecast, and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 11.0N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 11.7N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 12.5N 131.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 13.4N 134.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 14.2N 137.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 16.0N 142.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 17.4N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z 18.4N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm FAUSTO (EP1/EP062014)
2014-07-09 04:39:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FAUSTO WEAKENS AS IT TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 8 the center of FAUSTO was located near 11.0, -126.5 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Public Advisory Number 6
2014-07-09 04:39:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 090239 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 ...FAUSTO WEAKENS AS IT TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.0N 126.5W ABOUT 1370 MI...2200 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST. FAUSTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM... MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2014-07-09 04:39:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 09 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 090239 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 0300 UTC WED JUL 09 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Advisory Number 6
2014-07-09 04:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 09 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 090238 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 0300 UTC WED JUL 09 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 126.5W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 126.5W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 125.7W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 11.7N 128.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.5N 131.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.4N 134.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.2N 137.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.0N 142.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 17.4N 146.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 18.4N 150.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 126.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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