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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Graphics
2014-07-08 23:08:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Jul 2014 20:48:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Jul 2014 21:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-07-08 22:45:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 082045 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 The cloud pattern of Fausto has changed little during the past several hours, with the low-level center located near the northern edge of the main convective mass. A recent ASCAT overpass shows that the circulation is poorly defined on the western side, and there are no tropical-storm-force winds except in the southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt since the ASCAT did not fully sample the southeastern quadrant. The initial motion is now 280/13. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Fausto should continue to result in a generally west-northwestward track for the next day or two. By days 2-4, a weakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 140-145 degrees west longitude should cause some deceleration and a slight turn to the right. By the end of the forecast period, it is expected that a weakening Fausto will be turning more westward in the lower-level trade wind flow. The new track forecast is just a little to the left of and slightly faster than the previous forecast, and it lies in the middle of the track guidance envelope. Fausto should be over warm sea surface temperatures and in an area of light vertical wind shear for about 48 hours. While these conditions are favorable, microwave satellite data and water vapor imagery show significant dry air near the cyclone. This, combined with the current structure, suggests that strengthening should be slow at best. After 48 hours, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause Fausto to weaken. The new intensity forecast calls for a slower strengthening and a quicker weakening than the previous forecast, which is in best agreement with the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 10.0N 124.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 10.5N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 11.4N 129.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 12.2N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 13.3N 135.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 15.0N 140.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 16.5N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 17.0N 148.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm FAUSTO (EP1/EP062014)
2014-07-08 22:41:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FAUSTO MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 8 the center of FAUSTO was located near 10.0, -124.6 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Public Advisory Number 5
2014-07-08 22:41:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 082041 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 ...FAUSTO MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 124.6W ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST. FAUSTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Advisory Number 5
2014-07-08 22:40:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 082040 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 2100 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 124.6W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 124.6W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 10.5N 126.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 11.4N 129.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 12.2N 132.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.3N 135.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.0N 140.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 16.5N 144.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 17.0N 148.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 124.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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