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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Advisory Number 4
2014-07-08 16:49:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 081448 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 1500 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 123.2W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 70SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 123.2W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 10.3N 125.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 80SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 11.0N 127.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 11.9N 130.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 12.9N 133.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.8N 139.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 16.5N 142.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 17.5N 146.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.7N 123.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Graphics
2014-07-08 11:08:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Jul 2014 08:38:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Jul 2014 09:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-07-08 10:45:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080845 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Fausto's cloud pattern appears well organized, with plenty of cold-topped convection and a long band wrapping around the western and southern side of the circulation. However, a couple of ASCAT passes suggest that the cyclone's satellite presentation is misleading, as the low-level center is located near or outside of the northwestern edge of the main convective mass. This structure makes sense with UW-CIMSS shear analyses that show 10 to 15 kt of north-northwesterly shear affecting the cyclone. One of the ASCAT passes showed believable 37-knot winds about 60 n mi southeast of the center, so the initial intensity is maintained at 40 kt. The initial motion estimate is 270/12. Although Fausto has not gained much latitude yet, the track guidance shows the cyclone moving west-northwestward while it approaches the western periphery of a subtropical ridge and nears a weakness along 130w longitude. The latter feature is forecast to lift northward while retrograding, which should allow for enough ridging to keep Fausto on a west- northwestward heading until day 4 or 5. By that time, the cyclone is expected to weaken considerably and become shallower, which should result in a more westerly motion. The NHC track forecast is only slighty to the left of the previous one and a bit faster. The NHC track forecast continues to favor the left side of the guidance envelope and is closest to the HWRF, which had a better initialization of the cyclone. Except for some modest northwesterly or north-northwesterly shear, the large-scale environment is generally expected to be suitable for intensification over the short term. Beyond two days, thermodynamic conditions are forecast to gradually become less favorable and the shear is likely to increase considerably after 72 hours. These negative factors should result in weakening after a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged relative to the previous forecast and is near the mult-model consensus. It should be noted that the global models continue to depict Fausto as a weak feature that does not intensify further during the forecast period. Thus a plausible alternate scenario is for Fausto to degenerate into an open trough within a few days for reasons unknown. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 9.5N 122.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 9.9N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 10.6N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 11.5N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 12.3N 131.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 14.3N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 16.0N 141.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 17.0N 145.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Advisory Number 3
2014-07-08 10:44:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 080844 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 0900 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 CORRECTED FOR INITIAL MOTION THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 122.2W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 122.2W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 121.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 9.9N 123.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 80SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 10.6N 126.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 11.5N 129.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 12.3N 131.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.3N 136.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 16.0N 141.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 17.0N 145.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 122.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Tropical Storm FAUSTO (EP1/EP062014)
2014-07-08 10:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FAUSTO HAS NOT STRENGTHENED FURTHER... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 8 the center of FAUSTO was located near 9.5, -122.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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