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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-10-04 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040233 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Marie crossed the 26 degree SST isotherm earlier this evening and the cold waters and accompanying dry,stable air are having a big impact on the storm. Recent microwave imagery shows that the hurricane no longer has an closed eyewall in the southern portion of its inner core. Furthermore, cloud top temperatures have warmed and the hurricane's eye is barely discernible. A blend of Final-T and CI Dvorak numbers from TAFB is the primary basis for the initial intensity of 100 kt. Continued rapid weakening is anticipated for the next 36 to 48 h as Marie encounters very hostile environmental conditions. After that time, continued weakening is likely and most of the dynamical models indicate that the cyclone will lose its convection by around day 5, if not a little sooner. The hurricane is moving northwestward near 7 kt. A ridge extending westward from southwestern U.S. should keep Marie moving generally west-northwestward or northwestward at about the same forward speed for the next several days. Near the end of the forecast period, Marie will likely turn northward ahead of a deep layer trough approaching from the northwest. The spread in the track guidance is quite low, and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high, particularly since almost no change was made to the previous advisory forecast. Both the track and intensity forecasts are based on the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.5N 127.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 20.2N 128.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.9N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 21.6N 131.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 22.3N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 22.9N 133.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 23.7N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 24.7N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 26.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-04 04:32:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 02:32:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 03:33:06 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-04 04:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Oct 3 the center of Marie was located near 19.5, -127.9 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-03 22:48:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 20:48:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 20:48:01 GMT
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-10-03 22:46:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 032046 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Marie is finally beginning to show signs of weakening. Recent GOES-17 infrared satellite imagery indicates cloud tops are warming in the western eyewall, and water vapor imagery shows drier air impinging on the western periphery of the storm. Despite this, there is still deep convection with cloud tops colder than -70 degrees Celsius persisting in the eastern eyewall. The initial intensity is slightly lowered to 110 kt with this advisory based on a blend of TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications and a 16 UTC SATCON estimate of 114 kt. Marie is likely beginning to experience increased deep-layer southwesterly wind shear as it moves toward the 26 degree Celsius sea surface temperature isotherm. With environmental conditions becoming increasingly hostile, Marie is expected to steadily, and perhaps rapidly, weaken over the next several days. Marie is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm within 36 hours, as the storm moves over cooler waters and into an environment with 30 kt of vertical wind shear. Steady weakening should continue through early next week, and the system is expected to become a tropical depression by Wednesday and a remnant low on Thursday. Now that the system is finally weakening, the latest NHC intensity forecast reflects a more rapid downward trend supported by the model consensus aids. Marie's initial motion is 325/8 kt, slightly more northwestward than the previous advisory. Marie should continue moving northwestward or west-northwestward for the next several days along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. The latest model guidance remains tightly clustered during the first 2-3 days of the forecast. Then, the bulk of the guidance indicates Marie will slow down and turn more northward late next week ahead of a deep-layer trough to the north of the storm. Given this recurving scenario, there is more significant spread in the guidance at day 4 and beyond, with the GFS still farther to the right than most other models. Overall, the official NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly right of the previous one in agreement with the TVCE/HCCA aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 19.1N 127.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.8N 128.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.6N 129.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 21.3N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.9N 131.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 23.0N 134.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 24.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 25.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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