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Post-Tropical Cyclone JERRY Graphics
2013-10-03 23:12:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2013 20:32:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2013 21:08:44 GMT
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jerry
cyclone
posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 20
2013-10-03 22:32:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 032031 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 PM AST THU OCT 03 2013 JERRY LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KT IN 48 HOURS. REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AFTER 48 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...060/12. POST-TROPICAL JERRY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS PREDICTION AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON JERRY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 31.8N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 04/0600Z 32.6N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1800Z 33.7N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 34.8N 32.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 36.0N 30.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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discussion
jerry
forecast
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone JERRY (AT1/AL112013)
2013-10-03 22:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 3 the center of JERRY was located near 31.8, -38.7 with movement ENE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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jerry
cyclone
posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone JERRY Public Advisory Number 20
2013-10-03 22:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 032031 TCPAT1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 PM AST THU OCT 03 2013 ...JERRY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 38.7W ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JERRY NO LONGER HAS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IT HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.7 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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public
advisory
jerry
Post-Tropical Cyclone JERRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2013-10-03 22:31:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 032031 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 7 16 17 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 46 50 45 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 45 33 36 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 1 2 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 1 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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