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Tropical Storm JERRY Graphics

2013-10-02 11:08:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2013 08:36:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2013 09:04:47 GMT

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Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 14

2013-10-02 10:35:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020835 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN BANDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND EXPERIMENTAL MULTISPECTRAL AIRMASS IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS UNDERNEATH A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE ARE NO RECENT SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES...AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WESTWARD DRIFT OR 270/1. JERRY IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A RIDGE IN THE WESTERLIES. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF EASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THIS RIDGE LATER TODAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE JERRY TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN TERMS OF DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE OTHER MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FORECAST MOTION BRINGS JERRY OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DECAY. INDEED...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT JERRY WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY THE 72 HOUR POINT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT JERRY DISSIPATES MUCH EARLIER AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 28.1N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 28.9N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 29.9N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 31.1N 40.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 32.2N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 34.5N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 38.0N 27.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Storm JERRY (AT1/AL112013)

2013-10-02 10:35:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JERRY DRIFTING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of JERRY was located near 28.1, -44.0 with movement W at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm JERRY Graphics

2013-10-02 05:09:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2013 02:48:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2013 03:05:44 GMT

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Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 13

2013-10-02 04:43:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020243 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION ONCE AGAIN...WITH RECENT SATELLITE DATA ONLY SHOWING A SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. A TIMELY 2356 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 35 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS WHILE JERRY REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...JERRY WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO AN AREA OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SMALL CYCLONE COULD SUCCUMB TO THE SHEAR AND DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW. AFTER REMAINING STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...IT APPEARS THAT JERRY HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD THIS EVENING. JERRY IS FORECAST TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER THAT TIME...JERRY SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE IN THE MID-LATITUDE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF JERRY IN A FEW DAYS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS... OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 28.1N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 28.6N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 29.5N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 30.6N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 31.8N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 34.0N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 37.0N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 41.0N 23.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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