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Tropical Storm JERRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2013-10-02 22:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 022032 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 4 7 10 12 17 NA TROP DEPRESSION 33 35 34 32 29 37 NA TROPICAL STORM 66 59 55 53 52 43 NA HURRICANE X 2 4 5 6 3 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 4 5 6 3 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X 1 X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 30KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) X(20) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Summary for Tropical Storm JERRY (AT1/AL112013)

2013-10-02 22:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JERRY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of JERRY was located near 29.3, -42.6 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm JERRY Public Advisory Number 16

2013-10-02 22:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 022032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013 ...JERRY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 42.6W ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.6 WEST. JERRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Advisory Number 16

2013-10-02 22:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 022031 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 42.6W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 42.6W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 42.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.2N 41.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 31.5N 39.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 32.6N 36.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 33.6N 34.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 35.5N 30.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 38.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 42.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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