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Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 15
2013-10-02 16:32:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 021431 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY IS NOT VERY EXTENSIVE AND CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT BE FULLY TROPICAL. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT. JERRY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS JERRY MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE LGEM GUIDANCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT JERRY WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY QUITE POSSIBLE. CENTER FIXES ARE ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE EARLIER THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. JERRY IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 500-MB WESTERLIES. A BROAD TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE AREA...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LATER ON...THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD CARRY JERRY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE CLOSE TO THAT FROM THE LATEST RUN OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 28.2N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 29.1N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 30.3N 41.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 31.4N 39.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 32.4N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 34.7N 31.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 37.5N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Advisory Number 15
2013-10-02 16:31:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 021431 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 43.9W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 43.9W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 43.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.1N 43.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.3N 41.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.4N 39.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.4N 37.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.7N 31.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 37.5N 26.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 43.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm JERRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2013-10-02 16:31:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 021431 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 4 7 10 12 17 NA TROP DEPRESSION 33 35 34 32 29 37 NA TROPICAL STORM 66 59 55 53 52 43 NA HURRICANE X 2 4 5 6 3 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 4 5 6 3 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X 1 X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 30KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm JERRY (AT1/AL112013)
2013-10-02 16:31:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY NEARLY STATIONARY... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of JERRY was located near 28.2, -43.9 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm JERRY Public Advisory Number 15
2013-10-02 16:31:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 021431 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013 ...JERRY NEARLY STATIONARY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 43.9W ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM WSW OF THE AZORES ABOUT 1275 MI...2055 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST. JERRY IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST- NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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