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Post-Tropical Cyclone JERRY Forecast Advisory Number 20
2013-10-03 22:31:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 032030 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 38.7W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 38.7W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 39.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 32.6N 36.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 33.7N 34.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.8N 32.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 36.0N 30.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 38.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression JERRY Graphics
2013-10-03 17:11:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2013 14:32:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2013 15:07:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-10-03 16:31:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 031431 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013 JERRY IS PRODUCING ONLY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THAT CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND EXPERIENCE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 96 HOURS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER. THE FORWARD SPEED IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THE MOTION IS NOW ABOUT 050/10. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JERRY SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED...AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...IT IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN A BIT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 31.0N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 31.9N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 32.9N 35.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 33.9N 33.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 35.2N 31.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 38.5N 27.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression JERRY (AT1/AL112013)
2013-10-03 16:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 3 the center of JERRY was located near 31.0, -40.2 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression JERRY Public Advisory Number 19
2013-10-03 16:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 031430 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013 ...JERRY LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 40.2W ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND JERRY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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