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Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-09-30 22:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 302037 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013 ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING RECENTLY...SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE FORMED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CENTER IS NOT READILY DISCERNABLE...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CLOUD MASS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 2.5...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT...IN PARTICULAR THE VERTICAL SHEAR...IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SEEMINGLY OVER-AGGRESSIVE LGEM AND THE GLOBAL AND HWRF MODELS THAT SHOW DISSIPATION OR A VERY WEAK SYSTEM BY 5 DAYS. JERRY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD...085/6...BUT THIS MOTION IS NOT LIKELY TO CONTINUE MUCH LONGER. THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF JERRY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN JERRY MOVING IN A CLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE COULD BE CARRIED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE NEXT 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES JERRY WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 4-5 DAYS...AND RESPOND TO THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...SHOWN BY THE ECMWF MODEL...IS FOR JERRY TO WEAKEN TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH BY THAT TIME AND DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 27.3N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 27.0N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 26.7N 45.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 26.7N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 27.2N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 28.5N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 30.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 32.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm JERRY (AT1/AL112013)
2013-09-30 22:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ERRATICALLY SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of JERRY was located near 27.3, -44.9 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm JERRY Public Advisory Number 8
2013-09-30 22:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 302035 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013 ...JERRY EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ERRATICALLY SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 44.9W ABOUT 1240 MI...1995 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST. JERRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm JERRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-09-30 22:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 302035 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 3 5 8 9 12 14 TROP DEPRESSION 31 20 22 25 25 32 34 TROPICAL STORM 67 72 66 59 58 51 47 HURRICANE 1 5 6 9 9 5 4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 5 5 8 8 5 4 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 35KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Advisory Number 8
2013-09-30 22:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 302034 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 44.9W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 44.9W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 45.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.0N 44.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.7N 45.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.7N 46.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.2N 47.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 28.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 30.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 32.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 44.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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