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Tropical Storm JERRY Graphics
2013-10-01 11:09:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2013 08:49:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2013 09:05:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm JERRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2013-10-01 10:37:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 010837 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 3 5 6 10 15 TROP DEPRESSION 11 21 16 19 21 27 35 TROPICAL STORM 87 71 70 63 59 56 46 HURRICANE 2 5 11 14 13 7 4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 4 9 12 12 6 3 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 2 1 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Advisory Number 10
2013-10-01 10:35:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 010835 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 43.7W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 43.7W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 43.6W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.2N 43.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.5N 44.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.2N 44.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.0N 44.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 30.7N 41.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 32.0N 37.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 33.5N 33.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 43.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm JERRY Graphics
2013-10-01 05:10:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2013 02:46:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2013 03:06:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-10-01 04:45:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 010245 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013 THE STRUCTURE OF JERRY HAS EVOLVED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. EARLIER TODAY THE CLOUD PATTERN RESEMBLED A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. RECENTLY...BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW MUCH MORE SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE STORM DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS APPARENTLY SLACKENED...GIVEN THE MORE SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRIER AIR IMPINGING ON JERRY. THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER 72 HOURS... WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE DUE TO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE SINCE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE RANGING FROM DISSIPATION WITHIN A FEW DAYS...AS SHOWN BY THE HWRF AND ECMWF MODELS...TO A HURRICANE AS INDICATED BY THE LGEM. JERRY IS STILL MOVING EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL SOON SLOW DOWN AND MEANDER WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. A WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 27.4N 43.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 27.2N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 27.1N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 27.3N 45.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 27.9N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 29.0N 47.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 30.5N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 33.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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