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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-18 10:44:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180844 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Mario has done well in fighting off northeasterly shear that continues to impact it, with deep convection extending across the center for much of the night. A recent scatterometer pass indicated that tropical storm force winds now extend up to 80 n mi in the southeast quadrant, and 60 n mi in the northeast quadrant. This pass also indicated that the maximum winds have increased to 40 kt, and this will be the initial advisory intensity. Mario has turned a little to the left, and the initial motion is now 310/09 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone should continue to steer it in this general direction through Thursday morning. By late Thursday, a trough digging into the western United States is expected to erode the ridge, and the steering currents will collapse. This will result in a decrease in forward speed and eventually Mario is expected to become nearly stationary through Friday night. By Saturday, the ridge is forecast to rebuild over Mexico, which would result in Mario beginning a north-northwest motion. The official forecast track is high confidence through 72 hours and in the middle of tightly clustered consensus guidance. After 72 hours when the cyclone is expected to begin moving again, the guidance diverges and has shifted a little to the east. The official forecast was also shifted a little to the east, but remains west of the consensus aids during that time frame. The shear affecting Mario is expected to continue for the duration of the forecast period, while tropical cyclone Lorena remains to the northeast. Warm waters and a favorable atmospheric environment aside from the shear should allow for gradual strengthening for the next couple of days, and Mario is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. By Saturday, Mario will begin to move into a drier and more stable environment, while the shear remains. This should cause a weakening trend to begin and continue through the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and is on the higher end of the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 13.7N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 112.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.4N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 16.7N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 17.5N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 19.0N 113.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-18 10:44:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIO SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Mario was located near 13.7, -110.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 4
2019-09-18 10:44:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 180844 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...MARIO SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 110.1W ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 110.1 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a decrease in forward speed beginning on Thursday. Mario is expected to become nearly stationary early Friday through Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Mario is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-09-18 10:44:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 180844 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 15N 110W 34 56 4(60) 2(62) 1(63) 2(65) 2(67) X(67) 15N 110W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 7(12) 7(19) 2(21) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 8(18) 17(35) 10(45) 2(47) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 21(42) 13(55) 6(61) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) 2(20) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 10(30) 3(33) 1(34) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 9(16) 17(33) 13(46) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-09-18 10:43:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 180843 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 110.1W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 110.1W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 109.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 112.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.4N 112.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.7N 113.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.5N 112.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 19.0N 113.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 110.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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