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Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
2019-09-18 04:47:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 02:47:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 02:47:42 GMT
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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-09-18 04:46:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180246 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Mario's center was partially exposed after the release of the previous advisory, but it is now covered by a new convective burst. The convection itself remains somewhat lopsided, favoring the southwestern quadrant due to strong upper-level easterly winds emanating away from the larger Tropical Storm Lorena to the east. Since subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 30-40 kt, the initial intensity remains 35 kt on this advisory. The initial motion remains northwestward, or 325/8 kt. A mid-level ridge over Mexico should keep the cyclone on its northwestward trajectory for the next 2 days, but since the ridge retreats eastward a bit, Mario's forward motion is expected to decrease significantly during that time. By day 3, Mario and Lorena may get close enough to one another to cause Mario to almost stall. After day 3, Mario's track will mostly depend on Lorena's future, and there is significant model spread on days 4 and 5. The GFS has a stronger Lorena moving up near the Baja California peninsula, which pulls Mario farther toward the north and east. The ECMWF, on the other hand, dissipates Lorena near west-central Mexico, which allows Mario continue on a northwestward heading. For now, the official forecast splits the difference and closely follows the multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA model. Easterly to northeasterly shear is likely to continue over Mario during the next day or two, so only gradual strengthening is expected during that time. Vertical shear may decrease around the time that Mario stalls, and at that point the system is forecast to become a hurricane. Some weakening is anticipated by the end of the forecast period due to an increase in shear. The updated NHC intensity forecast is only slightly lower than the previous one based on the latest guidance. It should be noted that there is greater-than-normal uncertainty in this forecast since it is not known how much Mario and Lorena will interact in the coming days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.2N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.2N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.5N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.3N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 16.7N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 16.9N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 19.4N 115.1W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-09-18 04:46:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 180246 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 4 8(12) 1(13) 2(15) 5(20) 2(22) X(22) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 9(15) 6(21) 3(24) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 21(38) 15(53) 11(64) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 8(18) 8(26) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 14(29) 9(38) 2(40) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 14(26) 16(42) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-18 04:46:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Mario was located near 13.2, -109.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 3
2019-09-18 04:46:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 180246 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...MARIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 109.3W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 109.3 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days, with Mario becoming nearly stationary by late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Mario is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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