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Tropical Depression Narda Public Advisory Number 6
2019-09-29 22:55:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 292055 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Narda Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 ...NARDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 103.5W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Pacific coast of Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coasts of western and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Narda. Watches or warnings may be required for portions of this area on Monday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 103.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move over or near portions of the western and southwestern coasts of Mexico tonight, then emerge over the Pacific early Monday. It is then forecast to move near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected while the center is over land. Slow strengthening is forecast once the center moves back over the Pacific. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Narda Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-09-29 22:55:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 292055 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NARDA. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 103.5W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 103.5W AT 29/2100Z...INLAND AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 103.0W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.8N 105.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.0N 106.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.7N 108.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.7N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 103.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Karen Forecast Discussion Number 22
2019-09-27 16:56:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 271456 CCA TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 22...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Corrected status to dissipated at 72 hours Karen's associated convection is becoming increasingly disorganized, and as has been stated in previous advisories, the circulation is elongated and attached to a surface trough that extends northward toward Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry. A partial ASCAT pass only showed winds around 25 kt in the southern part of the circulation, and the initial intensity is therefore lowered, probably still generously, to 30 kt. Karen has moved out from beneath an upper-level anticyclone and is now feeling the effects of 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear. The shear is expected to increase further during the next few days and also become more southwesterly, which is likely to lead to weakening and further loss of organization. Based on the latest global model guidance, Karen is now forecast to lose organized deep convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 12 hours and then open up into a trough by day 3. Given the cyclone's current structure, however, it's entirely possible that either of these options could occur as soon as later today. The initial motion is east-northeastward, or 065/7 kt. As it becomes an increasingly shallower system, Karen should stop its eastward motion within the next 12-24 hours and then turn westward on the southern side of a low-level ridge developing over the western Atlantic. This forecast scenario remains consistent with the reasoning from previous NHC advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 28.8N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 29.0N 59.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1200Z 29.1N 59.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 60.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 29.3N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Karen Graphics
2019-09-27 16:41:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 14:41:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 15:24:31 GMT
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Tropical Depression Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2019-09-27 16:40:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 271440 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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