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Tropical Depression Karen Forecast Advisory Number 8
2019-09-24 04:51:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 240250 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 65.8W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 65.8W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 65.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.5N 66.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.6N 66.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 65.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.9N 65.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.8N 64.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 28.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 28.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 65.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Karen Public Advisory Number 8
2019-09-24 04:51:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 240250 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 65.8W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 65.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by early Tuesday, and a northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and then move over the western Atlantic Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by early Tuesday. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-24 01:40:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISORGANIZED KAREN EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY... As of 8:00 PM AST Mon Sep 23 the center of Karen was located near 15.8, -65.7 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Karen Public Advisory Number 7A
2019-09-24 01:40:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 232339 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 800 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...DISORGANIZED KAREN EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 65.7W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 65.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by early Tuesday, and a northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday morning and then move over the western Atlantic Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 3 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by early Tuesday. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Karen Graphics
2019-09-24 01:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 23:39:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 21:32:02 GMT
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