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Tropical Depression Erin Public Advisory Number 8
2019-08-28 16:36:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 281435 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Erin Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 ...ERIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 72.8W ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM WNW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erin was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 72.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). The cyclone is expected to turn northward later today and then north-northeastward early Thursday morning with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. The system could strengthen as an extratropical low on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Erin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-08-28 16:36:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 281435 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 25(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Erin Forecast Advisory Number 8
2019-08-28 16:35:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 281435 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 72.8W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 72.8W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 72.8W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 35.5N 72.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 39.0N 70.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 43.8N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 48.9N 62.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 72.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Six Graphics
2019-08-27 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 20:35:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 20:35:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression Six Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-08-27 22:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 272034 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 After a brief period when the center was near the edge of the convection this morning, once again the northwesterly shear disrupted the cloud pattern, and the low-level center has become detached from the main thunderstorm activity. The Dvorak estimates have not changed and still support an initial intensity of 30 kt. Earlier ASCAT data also indicated some vectors of 30 kt in the southeast quadrant. Since the shear is not forecast to abate, only a small increase in intensity is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters and should become extratropical while becoming absorbed by a larger trough. The depression meandered all day, but it has now been moving slowly toward the north-northwest or 345 degrees at 6 knots. This motion is highly uncertain because it includes the back and forth shifting of the center from the edge of the convection during the past several hours. The southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough should steer the cyclone northward and then northeastward with increasing forward speed over the North Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little bit to the north in this advisory following the northward shift of the multimodel consensus TVCA and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 31.8N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 32.7N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 35.0N 72.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 38.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 41.5N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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