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Tropical Depression Erin Forecast Advisory Number 10
2019-08-29 04:37:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290237 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 72.1W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 72.1W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 72.6W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 38.0N 70.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 42.4N 66.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 47.3N 62.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 72.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Erin (AT1/AL062019)
2019-08-28 22:44:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN TURNS NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 the center of Erin was located near 34.5, -72.7 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Erin Public Advisory Number 9
2019-08-28 22:44:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 282044 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Erin Advisory Number 9...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 ...ERIN TURNS NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 72.7W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erin was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 72.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). The cyclone is expected to turn north-northeastward tonight and then accelerate north-northeastward through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours, and Erin is forecast to become post-tropical later tonight. The cyclone could strengthen slightly after becoming an extratropical low on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Erin Graphics
2019-08-28 22:35:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 20:35:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 20:35:15 GMT
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Tropical Depression Erin Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-08-28 22:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 282034 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Strong northerly shear has continued to take a toll on Erin, with the system becoming a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt, which is supported by earlier ASCAT data and observations from buoy 41001. Northwesterly shear should continue to prevent strengthening while the system remains over warm waters tonight. If deep convection does not return soon, the system is likely to become post-tropical. Erin or its remnants should merge with a frontal system on Thursday and it could strengthen due to baroclinic processes after that time. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for the system to become an extratropical gale in 24 hours, and is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Erin has turned northward or 360/11 kt. The cyclone should turn north-northeastward tonight ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. After that time, it is expected to accelerate north-northeastward until it merges with another extratropical low by late Friday. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 34.5N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 36.8N 71.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/1800Z 40.7N 68.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/0600Z 45.3N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/1800Z 50.5N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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