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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory Number 2
2019-09-04 04:39:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 040239 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 32.8W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 32.8W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 32.6W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.7N 33.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 34.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.6N 35.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.0N 36.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.1N 39.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 31.7N 43.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 35.4N 46.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 32.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-09-03 22:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 032040 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 PM AST Tue Sep 03 2019 Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over the eastern Atlantic has become better defined during day, with rainbands forming on the eastern side of the circulation. This structure is good enough for a tropical depression, and the initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, which agrees with earlier ASCAT passes that showed 25-30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt. A general northwestward motion is anticipated during the next several days, faster by the weekend, as the system is steered by a strengthening eastern Atlantic ridge. One source of uncertainty in the future track is how much the cyclone is affected by a developing mid-level low around 25N45W in a few days. This feature could briefly induce a north-northwestward motion on Friday, and later west-northwestward on day 5 depending on exactly how close the new tropical cyclone gets to the mid-level low. For now it is best not to bite off on any particular model solution, since the intensity and depth of the cyclone isn't certain at this range. Thus, the forecast is close to the Atlantic model consensus TVCA, shaded a bit on the fast side assuming the system keeps some vertical depth. Although the depression is forecast to be in a low-shear environment during the next couple of days, marginal water temperatures should keep the strengthening rate modest. The intensity forecast is complicated beyond that point due to the system's interaction with the mid-level low, drier air in the mid-levels, and increasing waters temperatures. This mixed bag of factors makes the forecast rather murky, with any intensity changes at longer range having low predictability at this point. Therefore, the forecast is leveled off at long range, similar to the NOAA corrected-consensus model HCCA, but this uncertain forecast could require a great deal of revision later tonight or tomorrow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 19.0N 32.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.7N 33.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.4N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 21.4N 34.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 22.4N 35.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 26.2N 38.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 30.0N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 34.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-09-03 22:35:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 032034 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight (AT3/AL082019)
2019-09-03 22:34:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 3 the center of Eight was located near 19.0, -32.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Seven Graphics
2019-09-03 16:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 14:49:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 15:32:34 GMT
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