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Tropical Depression Erin Graphics
2019-08-29 04:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 02:39:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 03:31:40 GMT
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Tropical Depression Erin Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-08-29 04:38:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290238 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 After being devoid of deep convection for much of the day, new convection has developed around the center of Erin's circulation over the past couple of hours, giving it a little more time as a tropical cyclone. The current objective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is 30 kt, and so that will remain the initial intensity for this advisory. Westerly shear should prevent any intensification of Erin while it remains a tropical cyclone tonight. On Thursday, the cyclone should merge with a frontal system while it undergoes extratropical transition. Thereafter, the merged system could strengthen due to baroclinic processes. Erin has accelerated and is now moving at 025/18 kt. The cyclone is expected to move even faster to the northeast on Thursday and continue northeastward until it merges with another extratropical low by late Friday. The updated NHC track forecast is changed little from the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 35.6N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 38.0N 70.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/0000Z 42.4N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1200Z 47.3N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Erin (AT1/AL062019)
2019-08-29 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 the center of Erin was located near 35.6, -72.1 with movement NNE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Erin Public Advisory Number 10
2019-08-29 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290238 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Erin Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 ...ERIN HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.6N 72.1W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erin was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 72.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is expected to transition to an extratropical cyclone on Thursday and then become absorbed by a larger low pressure system on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Tropical Depression Erin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-08-29 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 290238 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
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