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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-08-22 22:52:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 222052 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 A couple of hours ago an observing site on the southeast coast of Puerto Rico, Las Mareas, reported sustained winds of 52 kt. These winds were apparently associated with a mesocyclone embedded within the larger-scale circulation and not representative of the intensity of the tropical storm. Scatterometer data and WSR-88D Doppler velocities from San Juan support an intensity of 45 kt. Since the center should be moving over land for the next 48 hours or so, no additional intensification is anticipated until Monday night when the center moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Over warm waters, with anticipated weak vertical shear, and anticyclonic flow aloft, Laura will likely strengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, but given the possibility of a favorable upper-air environment over the Gulf, this forecast could be conservative. At this time it does not seem likely that Marco, which is forecast to make landfall on the north-central Gulf coast a day or two earlier than Laura, should have much of an influence on the latter system. Center locations from earlier scatterometer data, low-cloud motions, and Dvorak fixes from both TAFB and SAB, give a motion of about 280/16 kt. Laura should move west-northwestward along the southern side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered near the southeastern U.S. coast through 72 hours. Then, the cyclone is expected to turn northwestward to northward on the western side of the high. The official track forecast is on the right side of the track guidance suite. Given the predicted track and wind radii, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are also expected across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and central and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday, with widespread river flooding possible in Puerto Rico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the central Bahamas and Andros Island Sunday night and Monday, and in the Florida Keys on Monday. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Tropical Storm Marco earlier in the week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 18.0N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 18.9N 70.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1800Z 20.1N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 81.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 25/0600Z 24.3N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 25/1800Z 25.7N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 33.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 12
2020-08-22 22:51:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 222051 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 ...LAURA HEADED FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...CONTINUES TO DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 68.1W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and for the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Granma. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Andros Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Granma A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The central Bahamas * Andros Island * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura. Additional tropical storm watches or warnings may be needed there tonight. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 68.1 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move away from Puerto Rico this evening, near or over Hispaniola tonight, near or over Cuba Sunday and Monday, and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant changes in strength are forecast during the next 48 hours while Laura moves near or over Hispaniola and Cuba. Some strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A Weatherflow station at Las Mareas in Puerto Rico recently reported sustained winds of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a wind gust to 40 mph (64 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Monday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes. Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern areas. Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches. This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater Antilles. Widespread minor to potential moderate river flooding is possible in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas and Jamaica. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area today through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night and Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-08-22 22:51:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 222051 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST AND FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO... SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO... SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * ANDROS ISLAND * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED THERE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 68.1W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 68.1W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 67.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.9N 70.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.1N 74.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.0N 81.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.3N 84.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.7N 87.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 33.0N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 68.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 11A
2020-08-22 19:54:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 221754 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 200 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 ...LAURA STRENGTHENS NEAR PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 67.5W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The central Bahamas * Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Granma A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and in the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Laura. Tropical storm warnings and additional watches will likely be issued for portions of central and eastern Cuba later today and tropical storm watches may be needed for the Florida Keys later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 67.5 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move away from Puerto Rico this afternoon, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight, and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. A Weatherflow observing site at Las Mareas, on the south coast of Puerto Rico, reported sustained winds of 60 mph (96 km/h) with a gust to 71 mph (115 km/h), but these winds appear to be associated with a small-scale circulation and are not representative of the larger-scale wind field. Some additional strengthening is possible until the center moves over Hispaniola tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Monday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes. Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern areas. Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches. This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater Antilles. Widespread minor to potential moderate river flooding is possible in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas and Jamaica. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area today through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 9A
2020-08-22 19:36:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 221736 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...MARCO'S CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 85.5W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 90 MI...150 ENE OF CANCUN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Province of Pinar del Rio Cuba * Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6-12 hours. Interests along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas should monitor the progress of Marco. Watches will likely be required for a portion of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 85.5 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday morning. A gradual turn toward the northwest and west-northwest is expected to begin Sunday afternoon and continue through Tuesday morning. On the forecast track, Marco's center will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by this evening. Marco will then move across the central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and approach the central and northwestern Gulf coast on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Marco is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Weakening is forecast to occur on Monday and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are also still possible today within the warning area along the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce 1 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible, across the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, and across far western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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