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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 8
2020-08-22 10:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 220849 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...MARCO A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 85.4W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 85.4 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and west-northwest early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today. The center will approach the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula by early evening and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday followed by a track toward the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area this afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by this evening. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Far western Cuba: 1 to 3 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-08-22 10:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 220849 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) 1(13) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 11(36) 1(37) 1(38) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 30(51) 3(54) 1(55) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 1(20) X(20) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) X(17) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) 1(17) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) 6(43) 1(44) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 2(13) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) 2(19) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 8(33) 2(35) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 2(15) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 2(19) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) 2(20) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 12(30) 4(34) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 4(22) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 5(22) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) 4(32) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) 3(23) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) 4(27) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 5(24) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 4(17) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 17 7(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 26 8(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) HAVANA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-08-22 10:49:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 220849 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO DZILAM MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 85.4W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 85.4W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 85.2W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.9N 86.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 87.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.1N 88.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.7N 89.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.3N 91.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 28.3N 93.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 29.1N 96.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 29.6N 97.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 85.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-08-22 08:04:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 220604 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 7A...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020 CORRECTED LATITUDE IN DISCUSSION ...MARCO MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 85.2W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 85.2 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly slower northwestward motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by an increase in forward speed by early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by 53rd Air Force Reserve reconnaissane aircraft observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area this afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by this evening. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 9A
2020-08-22 07:58:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 491 WTNT33 KNHC 220558 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 200 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 ...CENTER OF DISORGANIZED LAURA APPROACHING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 64.4W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque. The government of the Bahamas has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, and issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the central Bahamas. The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 64.4 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and a generally west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over portions of the Virgin Islands during the next several hours, near or over Puerto Rico later today, and near the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight and and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area area this morning through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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