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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-21 23:25:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 212125 CCB TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 8...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 Corrected formatting and initial intensity A poorly-defined convective band has become evident over the southeastern portion of the circulation. However, there is little or no deep convection near the estimated center. Overall, the system's cloud pattern still has a ragged appearance. Dvorak intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and the current intensity is held at 40 knots based on continuity from Hurricane Hunter observations from earlier today. There is a fairly well-defined upper-level outflow pattern at this time, but an upper-level trough to the west of Laura could be an impediment to future strengthening. The official intensity forecast is a little below the intensity consensus mainly due to the influences of the land masses of the Greater Antilles. At days 4-5, the intensity forecast is also a bit below the consensus due to uncertainties at these longer forecast ranges. The center is not very easy to see, even on visible or radar images, but the best guess at an initial motion is 275/15 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed much from the previous advisory package. Laura should move generally west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge for about the next 72 hours. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn northwestward as it begins to move around the western side of the ridge. The track guidance has shifted westward at days 4-5 and so has the official forecast, which is mostly close to the model consensus, but not quite as far west as that guidance in the latter part of the forecast period. Another NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate Laura shortly. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today through Saturday, Tropical Storm conditions are also expected along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas beginning today and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Sunday. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over Portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 17.1N 61.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 17.7N 63.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 18.6N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 19.6N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1800Z 20.5N 74.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 24/0600Z 22.0N 77.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 23.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 26.3N 86.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 29.0N 89.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-08-21 22:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 212050 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) 1(14) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) 1(19) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) 1(12) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) 1(15) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 10(37) 1(38) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 15(40) X(40) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) 1(27) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 3(24) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 18(35) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 21(35) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 1(27) X(27) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) X(23) X(23) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 15(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 13(28) 1(29) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 45(46) 7(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONCE PR 34 X 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) AGUADILLA PR 34 1 34(35) 11(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 35(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) VIEQUES PR 34 6 41(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) VIEQUES PR 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 16 50(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 16 19(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SAINT CROIX 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 80 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) SAINT MAARTEN 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 53 X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) SABA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 47 X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ST EUSTATIUS 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 36 X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BARBUDA 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ANTIGUA 34 26 X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 8
2020-08-21 22:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 212050 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 ...LAURA NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 61.2W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Haiti has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Laura. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 61.2 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a generally west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands later today, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area area later today through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday night and early Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-08-21 22:50:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 212050 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...AND MONTSERRAT * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 61.2W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 61.2W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 60.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.7N 63.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.6N 67.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.6N 70.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.5N 74.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.0N 77.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.5N 81.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 26.3N 86.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 61.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 6
2020-08-21 22:42:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 212041 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 84.3W ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from north of Cancun to Dzilam to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Bay Islands of Honduras. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Additional strengthening is forecast Sunday and Monday as the system moves over the central Gulf of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Eastern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches. Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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