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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-08-22 04:54:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220254 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 Laura remains quite disorganized this evening. Although satellite and radar images show a fair amount of deep convection over and to the east of the northern Leeward Islands, NOAA Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations indicate that the low-level center is located well to the west of the main area of deep convection. This asymmetric structure indicates that Laura is still not vertically aligned due to at least moderate wind shear. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt, and most of the strongest winds are well north and east of the center. The steering pattern for Laura appears to be very well established. A subtropical ridge over the central and western Atlantic is expected to expand westward, and that should cause Laura to move west-northwestward at a fairly quick pace during the next few days. This should take the storm across Puerto Rico on Saturday, near Hispaniola Saturday night, and close to or over Cuba on Sunday and Monday. By early next week, Laura should approach the western end of the ridge and that should cause the storm to slow down and turn toward the northwest over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. Even though the steering pattern is well established, there are still chances of center reformations, which could cause small but important track changes. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the south of the previous one to account for the more southern initial position and westward motion. Near the end of the period, Laura's track could also be influenced by Tropical Storm Marco, which is also forecast to be over the Gulf of Mexico, however the details of that interaction are highly uncertain at this time. Although the storm's structure is quite ragged at the moment, some of the models do show Laura becoming better organized this weekend and early next week due to a decrease in wind shear and very warm waters. However, there is significant uncertainty on how much the circulation will interact with the rugged islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. If the storm is able to stay north of those islands, some notable strengthening is possible as depicted by the HWRF and HMON models. However, if the storm moves over the islands, it might not strengthen at all until it passes through that area. The bottom line is the intensity forecast is very track dependent, which makes it more uncertain than normal. Given that the new track shows more land interaction, this forecast shows less strengthening in the short term, but is largely unchanged at the longer forecast times. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas beginning and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the central Bahamas Sunday night. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 17.0N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 17.6N 65.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 18.4N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1200Z 19.5N 72.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0000Z 20.8N 76.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/1200Z 22.1N 80.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/0000Z 23.8N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 26/0000Z 26.5N 87.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 27/0000Z 29.2N 90.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-22 04:54:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 220254 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has investigated the system over the northwest Caribbean during the past few hours. The plane reported a number of unflagged SFMR winds between 35 and 40 kt and max flight level winds of 41 kt. A blend of these data supports an intensity of 35 kt, and therefore, this system has been designated as Tropical Storm Marco. Deep convection has increased near and to the east of Marco's center during the past few hours. Although there still isn't much evidence of inner-core banding, the data from the plane does indicate that the center of Marco has become better defined since the afternoon and that the minimum pressure has dropped. Unfortunately the intensity forecast has not become any clearer and confidence in that aspect of the forecast is quite low. Marco is embedded within an environment that could support a fast rate of strengthening. However, recent microwave data does not indicate that the system has developed an inner-core, and only gradual strengthening is likely until it does. The intensity guidance spread is quite high, with the GFS and ECMWF global models both showing little further strengthening, while the HMON regional model rapidly makes Marco a hurricane before it reaches the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula. That possibility can not be ruled out, but a majority of the intensity guidance favors the weaker solution of the global models. Even with the HMON outlier included, the NHC intensity forecast is above the model consensus. Once Marco moves over the central Gulf of Mexico, a rapid increase in wind shear associated with an upper-level trough should limit the potential for further strengthening, and weakening is still anticipated before Marco nears the northern Gulf Coast, as shown in the previous official forecast. Confidence in the track forecast is also lower than normal, as the models spread remains quite high. Only small adjustments were made to the NHC forecast which heavily favors the GFS and ECMWF solutions on the left side of the track guidance. It is worth noting that the NHC track forecast is near middle of the GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Marco is currently forecast to move northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next day or two, before the ridge builds and turns the tropical cyclone farther west. Near the end of the period, Marco's track and intensity could be also influenced by Tropical Storm Laura which is also forecast to be over the Gulf of Mexico, however the details of that interaction are highly uncertain at this time. Given the high uncertainty in the forecast, larger than normal changes could be required to future advisories. Key Messages: 1. Marco is forecast to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday as it approaches the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region. 2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Although some strengthening is anticipated on Sunday, weakening is forecast as the system approaches the northwestern Gulf coast on Tuesday. It is still too soon to know exactly the location and magnitude of impacts the system will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast, and interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 18.7N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 19.7N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 21.1N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 22.7N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 24.4N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 25.9N 91.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 27.5N 92.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 29.0N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 27/0000Z 30.0N 97.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-08-22 04:53:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 220253 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 3(26) 1(27) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 6(34) X(34) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) 1(20) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 1(17) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 13(33) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 19(40) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 18(29) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 8(34) 1(35) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) X(30) X(30) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 1(31) 1(32) X(32) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 3( 3) 37(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 16(16) 33(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 7 62(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) PONCE PR 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 4 61(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN PR 34 33 44(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) VIEQUES PR 34 77 8(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) VIEQUES PR 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 83 2(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) SAINT CROIX 34 88 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) SAINT CROIX 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SABA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST EUSTATIUS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 34 64 X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) DOMINICA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 9
2020-08-22 04:53:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 220252 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LAURA QUITE DISORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 63.5W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, and issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the central Bahamas. The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 63.5 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and a generally west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern coast of Hispaniola Saturday night and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area area tonight through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-08-22 04:52:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 220252 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...AND MONTSERRAT. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 63.5W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 63.5W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 62.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.6N 65.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.4N 69.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.5N 72.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.8N 76.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.1N 80.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.8N 83.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.5N 87.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 29.2N 90.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 63.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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