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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 7
2020-08-22 04:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 220251 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 84.9W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 84.9 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly slower northwestward motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by an increase in forward speed by early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) based on reports from the Hurricane Hunter plane. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-08-22 04:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 220251 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 18(28) 2(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 39(46) 6(52) 1(53) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) 1(17) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 2(17) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 2(18) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 1(18) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 12(53) 3(56) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) 2(23) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 4(25) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 15(37) 4(41) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 4(20) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 5(26) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) 5(27) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 19(36) 7(43) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 6(28) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 6(29) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 18(36) 5(41) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) 5(30) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) 6(34) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 6(29) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 4(24) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 12 43(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) COZUMEL MX 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 9 27(36) 3(39) 1(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) HAVANA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-22 04:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 835 WTNT24 KNHC 220250 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO DZILAM MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 84.9W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 84.9W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 84.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.7N 85.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.1N 86.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.7N 88.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.4N 89.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.9N 91.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.5N 92.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.0N 95.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 97.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 84.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-08-22 01:56:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 212355 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 800 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 ...LAURA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 62.6W ABOUT 250 MI...415 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Laura. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 62.6 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a generally west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern coast of Hispaniola Saturday night and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday night and early Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 6A
2020-08-22 01:54:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 212354 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 84.7W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 84.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or early Saturday. The system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Additional strengthening is forecast Sunday and Monday as the system moves over the central Gulf of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Hurricane Hunter plane is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Eastern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches. Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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