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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 24
2020-08-03 04:42:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 030242 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 ...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 79.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Fenwick Island Delaware, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Fenwick Island Delaware * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay southward from Smith Point A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Fenwick Island Delaware northward to Watch Hill Rhode Island * Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point * Tidal Potomac River * Delaware Bay * Long Island and Long Island Sound Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or early Monday. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 79.8 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north and north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will pass just to the east of the Florida east coast through tonight. The center of Isaias will then move offshore of the coast of Georgia and southern South Carolina on Monday, move inland over eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina Monday night and move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next 36 hours, but Isaias is expected to be a strong tropical storm when it reaches the coast of eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina Monday night. Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region late Monday and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A 51 mph (82 km/h) wind gust was recently measured at NOAA buoy 41009, just off the coast of Cape Canaveral. NOAA buoy 41010, located about 130 miles (210 km) east-northeast of Cape Canaveral reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) with a wind gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) within the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft Sebastian Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft North of Cape Fear NC to Kiptopeke VA including Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse River, Pamlico River, Chesapeake Bay, and the Tidal Potomac River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in South and North Carolina Monday night and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to North Carolina through Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning on Tuesday. RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along and near the track of Isaias: Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 12 inches. Eastern Florida: Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 4 inches. Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches. Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals 8 inches. Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, is expected through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic. Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the southern Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South Carolina during the afternoon and evening on Monday, and across eastern North Carolina Monday evening and overnight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-08-03 04:42:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 03 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 030242 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0300 UTC MON AUG 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTHWARD FROM SMITH POINT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND * CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF SMITH POINT * TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER * DELAWARE BAY * LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 79.8W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 79.8W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.7N 80.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.2N 79.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.9N 77.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.5N 74.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 45.5N 70.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 130SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 50.0N 65.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 55.5N 56.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 79.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 23A
2020-08-03 01:42:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 022342 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 ...ISAIAS CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 79.7W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Watch Hill Rhode Island * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay * Tidal Potomac River * Delaware Bay * Long Island and Long Island Sound Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or early Monday. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 79.7 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north and north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will pass just to the east of the Florida east coast through tonight. The center of Isaias will then move offshore of the coast of Georgia and southern South Carolina on Monday, move inland over eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina Monday night and move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 36 hours, but Isaias is expected to be a strong tropical storm when it reaches the coast of eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina Monday night. Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region late Monday and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41009, located just off the coast of Cape Canaveral, recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). A Florida Institute of Technology observing station at Sebastien Inlet measured a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust of 48 mph (78 km/h) during the past couple of hours. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft Sebastian Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft North of Cape Fear NC to Kiptopeke VA including Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse River, Pamlico River, Chesapeake Bay, and the Tidal Potomac River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in South and North Carolina Monday night and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to North Carolina through Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning on Tuesday. RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along and near the track of Isaias: Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 12 inches. Eastern Florida: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 4 inches. Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches. Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals 8 inches. Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic, is expected through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South Carolina during the afternoon and evening on Monday, and across eastern North Carolina Monday evening and overnight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-08-02 22:57:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 022057 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 The earlier intense recent burst has waned since this morning, but the large convective cell has persisted. At the peak of the activity around 1500Z, several small patches of Doppler velocities of 90-96 kt were co-located with the pronounced mid-level circulation that was evident in the Melbourne radar reflectivity data. However, these intense wind speed values were short-lived for only about 20 minutes and, thus, were not considered to representative of Isaias' tangential wind field. Since that time, the cyclone has become more steady state with Doppler radar and Air Force Reserve aircraft data indicating surface winds in the 56-63 kt range. Therefore, the initial intensity of 60 kt is an average of these values. Radar and aircraft fixes indicate that Isaias is still moving toward the north-northwest or 345/08 kt. The latest model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Isaias moving north-northwestward through a break in the subtropical ridge tonight and turning northward by Monday morning, all the while remaining offshore of the coast from east-central Florida to Georgia. By Monday night, Isaias is forecast to turn northeastward and accelerate toward the Carolinas, reaching the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and New England by early Wednesday. The new NHC forecast track during the first 24 hours lies a little east of the previous one, but is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track thereafter, and lies close to the various consensus models, which are lightly packed around the previous NHC foreast. Isaias will continue to move slowly over the warm Gulfstream waters for the next 36 h or so. Despite unfavorable vertical shear conditions of around 25 kt, Isaias is expected to maintain its current intensity until landfall, and could restrengthen to hurricane status in 24-36 h when the vertical shear vector is forecast to switch from westerly to southwesterly which would align the shear along the direction of storm motion. Some baroclinic interaction is expected on days 2-3 when Isaias will move into the right-rear quadrant of an anticyclonically curved jet streak, which is expected to hold the intensity a little above what would normally be expected for a post-landfall tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN intensity consensus model, which agree well with the GFS and ECMWF model intensity forecasts. Key Messages: 1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of 2 to 4 feet above ground level from Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to North Carolina through Monday night. Isaias is expected to be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of northern South Carolina and southern North Carolina Monday night, and strong tropical storm force winds are likely with hurricane conditions possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 3. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, are expected through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the U.S. East Coast. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic. 4. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, including the Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, and Long Island Sound, as tropical storm force winds are possible in these areas on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued tonight and Monday as Isaias is expected to move northward near or over the mid-Atlantic and New England states Tuesday and Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 27.8N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 29.0N 80.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 30.9N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 33.7N 78.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 38.1N 75.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0600Z 42.5N 72.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1800Z 46.3N 68.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1800Z 54.2N 58.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2020-08-02 22:45:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 791 FONT14 KNHC 022045 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 3(23) X(23) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 2(27) X(27) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 1(31) X(31) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) X(33) X(33) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) X(35) X(35) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) X(38) X(38) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 1(44) X(44) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) X(42) X(42) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) X(43) X(43) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) X(35) X(35) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) X(33) X(33) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 43(47) X(47) X(47) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) X(43) X(43) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 40(44) X(44) X(44) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) X(44) X(44) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) 1(47) X(47) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 1(24) X(24) ALBANY NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) X(32) X(32) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 45(50) X(50) X(50) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 39(46) X(46) X(46) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 36(49) X(49) X(49) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 33(42) X(42) X(42) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NYC CNTRL PARK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 30(40) X(40) X(40) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 22(36) X(36) X(36) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 29(44) X(44) X(44) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) NWS EARLE NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) X(24) X(24) ALLENTOWN PA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 18(37) X(37) X(37) PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PHILADELPHIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 22(48) X(48) X(48) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 6(24) X(24) X(24) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 31(31) 12(43) X(43) X(43) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 46(46) 12(58) X(58) X(58) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) X(20) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 52(52) 9(61) X(61) X(61) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) X(21) X(21) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 36(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 54(54) 7(61) X(61) X(61) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 54(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 54(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 36(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 16(16) 16(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 13(13) 43(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 22(22) 37(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 20(20) 34(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 36(36) 26(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 35(35) 25(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 51(53) 11(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 13(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 3( 3) 56(59) 7(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 56(60) 4(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 14(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 43(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 9(10) 33(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 9(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 4 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 4 8(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 29 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) PATRICK AFB 34 25 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) FT PIERCE FL 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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