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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 18A
2020-08-01 19:40:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 011740 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...ISAIAS EMERGING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA... ...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 78.4W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida * Lake Okeechobee * Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and the Miami NOAA Doppler weather radar near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 78.4 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a north-northwestward motion by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over the Straits of Florida tonight, and approach the southeast coast of Florida early Sunday morning. Isaias is then forecast to move near or along the the east coast of the Florida peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Although Isaias has weakened after passing over Andros Island, some re-strengthening is expected tonight and Sunday morning when the cyclone will be moving over the warm waters of the Straits of Florida and the Gulf Stream. Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane through Monday, followed by slow weakening beginning Monday night or Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was recently observed at Nassau, Bahamas. Doppler radar indicates that tropical-storm-force winds are located just offshore Broward and Miami-Dade Counties. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Northwestern Bahamas. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread over the Northwestern Bahamas through today. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in northeast Florida by late Sunday, and are possible in the watch area in northeast Florida and southeast Georgia by Monday morning. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches. Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across the Northeast, from eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey, southeast New York, and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life- threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas in eastern Florida and across the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 18
2020-08-01 17:11:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 011510 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 18...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Corrected rainfall statement ...ISAIAS MAKING LANDFALL ON NORTHERN ANDROS ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 77.9W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM WSW OF NASSAU ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from the Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida * Lake Okeechobee * Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bahamas radar near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 77.9 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a north-northwestward motion by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over northern Andros Island during the next few hours and move near or over Grand Bahama Island in the Northwestern Bahamas later today. Isaias is forecast to move near the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday, and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane during this time. Slow weakening is expected to begin by late Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). Reports from a U.S. Navy site on Andros Island indicate that sustained winds of 45 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) occurred about 3 hours ago. More recently, a sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (77 km/h) were measured at Nassau, Bahamas. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Northwestern Bahamas. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread over the Northwestern Bahamas through today. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in northeast Florida by late Sunday, and are possible in the watch area in northeast Florida and southeast Georgia by Monday morning. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches. Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across the Northeast, from eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey, southeast New York, and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas in eastern Florida and across the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-08-01 17:00:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 011500 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft around 1410 UTC indicated that the center of the eye of Isaias was located along the southern coast of northern Andros Island about 15 nmi south-southwest of Andros Town. The eye appearance in Bahamas and aircraft radar data, along with the visual reports from the flight crew, has gone from nearly closed a few hours ago to open in the southwestern quadrant more recently. However, the diameter of the eye has been has been holding steady between 20-22 nmi, an indication that Isaias has been able to fight off some modest southwesterly wind shear. The initial intensity has been lowered to 70 kt based on maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 77 kt, which equals about 70-kt surface wind speed, and the central pressure fluctuating between 987-990 mb. The initial motion estimate remains 315/10 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is now tightly packed about the previous 18-h worth of official track forecasts, and as a result, no significant changes were made to the previous advisory track. The global and regional models have come into much better agreement compared to 24 hours ago in taking Isaias northwestward slowly for the next 36 h or so, and moving the center near or keeping it just offshore the east-central Florida coast. By 48 hours, the hurricane is expected to turn northward around the western portion of the Bermuda-Azores ridge that will slowly be eroded by an approaching mid-level shortwave trough currently situated over the central United States. By 60 h and beyond, the aforementioned trough is expected to gradually accelerate Isaias northeastward near or along the coast from South Carolina to New England. The new NHC track forecast is basically an extension of the previous one, and lies very close to an average of the simple consensus model TVCA, and the corrected- consensus models NOAA-HCCA and FSSE. In the near term, Isaias could weaken a little bit this afternoon while passing over northern Andros Island. However, the still impressive vertical structure of the cyclone should allow for some re-strengthening after the center moves back over the warm Gulf Stream by this evening. The current SHIPS analyzed westerly vertical wind shear of 25 kt could be too high due to the model incorporating some of the storm's outflow. The models forecast the shear to weaken somewhat over the next 36 h while Isaias is moving over the Gulf Stream, and the 06Z UKMET shows Isaias moving underneath a 200-mb anticyclone, which would normally favor some strengthening. Given all of these factors, the official forecast maintains a steady intensity through Monday night. Slow weakening is forecast when Isais encounters more significant southwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of a strong upper-level trough that will be approaching the U.S. east coast on days 3-5. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge will continue in portions of the northwest Bahamas today and tonight. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida east coast by late tonight and Sunday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas, and flash urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, in eastern Florida, and from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia early next week. 5. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of the northeast Florida and southern Georgia coasts. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued later today and Sunday along the U.S. east coast as the risk of wind, heavy rainfall, and storm surge impacts continues to increase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 24.7N 77.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 25.7N 78.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 27.1N 79.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 28.5N 80.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 30.1N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 32.6N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 36.0N 76.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/1200Z 43.3N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 06/1200Z 49.0N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-08-01 16:47:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 945 FONT14 KNHC 011447 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) X(26) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30) 1(31) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 13(33) X(33) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) X(21) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 9(31) X(31) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 8(31) X(31) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 10(33) X(33) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 7(35) X(35) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 3(28) X(28) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 5(37) X(37) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 3(37) X(37) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 2(37) X(37) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) 2(43) X(43) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 1(44) X(44) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 1(37) X(37) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) X(45) X(45) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) X(42) X(42) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 1(42) X(42) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 1(32) X(32) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 31(38) X(38) X(38) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 1(30) X(30) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 8(30) X(30) X(30) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 20(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 13(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ORLANDO FL 34 1 4( 5) 14(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 27(29) 34(63) 5(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 3( 3) 21(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 2 27(29) 33(62) 5(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) PATRICK AFB 50 X 3( 3) 21(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 3 59(62) 13(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) FT PIERCE FL 50 X 14(14) 17(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) FT PIERCE FL 64 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 15 55(70) 3(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) W PALM BEACH 50 1 17(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) W PALM BEACH 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 23 26(49) 2(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) FT LAUDERDALE 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 34 6 6(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 76 17(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GRAND BAHAMA 50 7 37(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) GRAND BAHAMA 64 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ANDROS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANDROS 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANDROS 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-08-01 16:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 011445 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HALLANDALE BEACH TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 77.9W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 45SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 77.9W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 77.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.7N 78.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.1N 79.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 28.5N 80.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.1N 80.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.6N 79.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.0N 76.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 43.3N 69.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 49.0N 57.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 77.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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