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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 22
2020-08-02 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 021450 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 79.6W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the North Carolina coast from north of Surf City to Duck, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Jupiter Inlet Florida and for Lake Okeechobee has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch for the Florida east coast has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds Interests elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 79.6 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday morning. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near the east coast of Florida today through late tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move from offshore the coast of Georgia into the mid-Atlantic states. Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, the NOAA C-MAN station at Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island, measured a wind gust of 64 mph (103 km/h). A wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h) was reported at Freeport, Grand Bahama Island. Along the east coast of Florida, tropical-storm-force wind gusts have been observed from Juno Beach northward to Port St. Lucie. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft Jupiter Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight. These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina within the warning area on Monday and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in North Carolina on Tuesday. RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along and near the track of Isaias: Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches. Carolinas and the mid Atlantic: 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7 inches. Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the coastal Carolinas and Virginia, is expected through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: The potential for a couple tornadoes will begin along coastal South Carolina during the late afternoon and evening on Monday, spreading across eastern North Carolina on Monday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 22
2020-08-02 16:50:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 535 WTNT24 KNHC 021450 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 79.6W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 79.6W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 79.5W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.6N 80.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.2N 79.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.7N 77.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.1N 74.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 44.6N 70.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 51.7N 63.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 79.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 21A
2020-08-02 13:58:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 021157 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 79.5W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Hallandale Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 79.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a north-northwestward motion tonight. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the east coast of Florida today through late tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern mid-Atlantic states. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, a wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) was reported at Freeport, Grand Bahama Island, and a Weatherflow observing site at Junno Beach Pier, Florida, measured a wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Miami Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight. These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina within the warning area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in South and North Carolina beginning Monday night and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches. Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7 inches. Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Central and Northwest Bahamas and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: The potential for a couple tornadoes will begin along coastal South Carolina during the late afternoon and evening on Monday, spreading across eastern North Carolina on Monday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-08-02 10:57:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 020856 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 The burst of deep convection that developed to the northeast of the center last evening has not resulted in any significant improvement in the structure of Isaias according to recent reconnaissance aircraft data and radar imagery. The tropical cyclone is still being adversely affected by about 25 kt of 850-200 mb vertical wind shear. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has provided several center fixes overnight has found peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 67 kt, and peak believable SFMR winds of 51 kt. These data, along with an earlier ASCAT overpass, indicate that Isaias' intensity is 55 kt. In addition, both the aircraft and ASCAT data suggest that the wind field over the western portion of the circulation is somewhat smaller than previous estimated. Since Isaias has not shown any signs of re-organizing overnight, it appears that the window of opportunity for it to re-strengthen is closing. The SHIPS guidance and global model fields do not show the shear abating during the next 24-36 hours while Isaias moves near the Florida coast. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast shows little change in strength during this time. Later in the period, gradual weakening should occur as the storm moves northward along the east coast of the United States. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model and the latest multi-model intensity consensus. Recent aircraft fixes and radar data show that Isaias is moving northwestward or 325/8 kt. A slow northwestward to north-northwestward motion around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge centered near Bermuda should take the center of Isaias very near the east coast of Florida through Monday. After that, the tropical cyclone should begin to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward as a trough slides eastward into the eastern United States. The dynamical models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies between the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models. The reduction in the initial and predicted intensity of Isaias has necessitated changes in warnings along the east coast of Florida. The Hurricane Warning along the east-central coast of Florida has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the northwestern Bahamas through today. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along the east coast of Florida within the warning area through early Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina within the warning area on Monday. 3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding across portions of the northwestern Bahamas, and flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, along the East Coast of the United States. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic this week. 5. Tropical storm watches are in effect for portions of the coast of South and North Carolina. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued later today as Isaias is expected to move northward near or over the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts over the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 26.3N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 27.4N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 28.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 30.7N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 33.7N 79.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1800Z 37.8N 76.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/0600Z 42.9N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/0600Z 50.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-08-02 10:56:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 020856 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) X(23) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 3(24) X(24) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 5(21) X(21) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) X(24) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 2(27) X(27) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 2(27) X(27) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 3(26) X(26) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) X(24) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) X(27) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 2(29) X(29) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 1(32) X(32) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) X(27) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 1(29) X(29) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) X(30) X(30) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 1(34) X(34) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BALTIMORE MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) X(34) X(34) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) X(30) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 1(45) X(45) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) X(46) X(46) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) X(38) X(38) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 46(48) 1(49) X(49) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) X(38) X(38) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) X(48) X(48) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) X(48) X(48) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) X(48) X(48) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 42(48) X(48) X(48) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 22(36) X(36) X(36) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 34(49) X(49) X(49) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) X(37) X(37) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) 18(46) X(46) X(46) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 33(52) X(52) X(52) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 29(55) X(55) X(55) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 27(50) X(50) X(50) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 19(58) X(58) X(58) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 36(36) 20(56) X(56) X(56) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 47(49) 11(60) X(60) X(60) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 8(39) X(39) X(39) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 50(52) 9(61) X(61) X(61) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 52(55) 7(62) X(62) X(62) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 46(48) 5(53) X(53) X(53) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 43(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 25(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 5( 6) 19(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 9(10) 21(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 23(24) 7(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 3 10(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) COCOA BEACH FL 34 39 33(72) 1(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) COCOA BEACH FL 50 2 19(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 38 33(71) 1(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) PATRICK AFB 50 2 18(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PATRICK AFB 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 82 5(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) FT PIERCE FL 50 16 11(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) FT PIERCE FL 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) W PALM BEACH 50 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) FT LAUDERDALE 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NAPLES FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 50 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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