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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-01 16:32:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 011432 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 200 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 The center of the depression is mostly exposed this morning with deep convection remaining only over the northwest portion of the circulation. A recent ASCAT overpass showed a small area of winds of 20 to 25 kt in the northern semicircle. Based on this data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. The persistent convection has likely bought a little more time for the depression to survive. However, the cyclone is forecast to remain over SSTs of about 24 to 25 C for the next day or so. This should cause the convection to gradually decrease, causing the depression to become a remnant low by tonight. An alternative scenario is that the low could open into a trough before the convection dissipates. The depression is moving northwest at around 12 kt. A turn to the west-northwest is expected later today as the cyclone pivots around a large mid-level gyre to its southwest. This west-northwest motion should continue until the system dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 18.6N 22.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 19.8N 23.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 4
2020-08-01 16:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 011432 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 200 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 22.2W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NNE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 22.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move north of the Cabo Verde Islands this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a remnant low or dissipate by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-01 16:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 011432 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 22.2W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 22.2W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 21.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.8N 23.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 22.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-08-01 16:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 011432 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 17A
2020-08-01 13:51:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 011151 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...RAGGED EYE OF ISAIAS NEAR EASTERN ANDROS ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 77.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM S OF NASSAU BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for the Central Bahamas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bahamas radar near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 77.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over Andros Island in the Northwestern Bahamas this morning and continue to move near or over the rest of Northwestern Bahamas later today, and move near the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday, and and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane during this time. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft was 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Northwestern Bahamas. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread over the Northwestern Bahamas later today. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. From Friday night through Tuesday: South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches. Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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