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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 17

2020-08-01 10:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 010855 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Isaias has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery this morning, likely due to the impact of westerly shear and dry air entrainment. The area of central convection has shrunk in size, although radar data from the Bahamas shows some banding near the center and occasional attempts to wrap up an eyewall. Also, a dry slot is now present in the eastern semicircle between the central convection and the outer banding. The last Hurricane Hunter mission indicated that the maximum winds had increased to near 75 kt, so that is maintained for this advisory. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the storm during the next several hours. The initial motion is now northwestward or 315/10 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged, as Isais should continue to move northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge today and begin to turn north-northwestward through a weakness in the ridge on Sunday. After that, the storm should recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies, with a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed likely. The track guidance envelope has shifted a little to the east near the Florida coast and calls for a slower forward motion that the previous guidance. Thus, the new forecast track has been adjusted a little east of, and slower than, the previous track. The hurricane is currently undergoing about 25 kt of westerly vertical shear, and some mid-level dry air is present west of the center. This combination should prevent any more intensification, and, while Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane as it passes near the Florida coast, at least slight weakening should occur during this time. Current indications from the global models are that the storm will continue to experience strong shear as it recurves, and thus the intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for weakening during this time. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Bahamas through Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida east coast late Saturday and Saturday night, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, across South to east-Central Florida, and across the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia early next week. 5. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge spreading along much of the the U.S. east coast through early next week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 23.9N 77.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 25.0N 78.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 26.3N 79.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 27.6N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 29.1N 80.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 31.2N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 34.0N 77.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 41.5N 71.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/0600Z 47.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2020-08-01 10:51:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 010851 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) X(29) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 12(25) X(25) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) X(24) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 14(34) X(34) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 8(33) X(33) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 6(24) X(24) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 4(36) X(36) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 3(30) X(30) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 2(29) X(29) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) X(21) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 1(28) X(28) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 1(23) X(23) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 12(32) 1(33) X(33) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 17(28) 7(35) X(35) X(35) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 10(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 12(14) 35(49) 12(61) 3(64) X(64) X(64) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 2 12(14) 35(49) 12(61) 3(64) X(64) X(64) PATRICK AFB 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 4 31(35) 31(66) 5(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) FT PIERCE FL 50 X 5( 5) 23(28) 4(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 8 51(59) 14(73) 1(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) W PALM BEACH 50 1 15(16) 14(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) W PALM BEACH 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 15 39(54) 6(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) FT LAUDERDALE 50 1 11(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 4 16(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MIAMI FL 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 3 8(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MARATHON FL 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NAPLES FL 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FT MYERS FL 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VENICE FL 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TAMPA FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 53 36(89) 4(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) GRAND BAHAMA 50 3 55(58) 6(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X 12(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 92 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 24 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ANDROS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANDROS 50 61 X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ANDROS 64 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREAT EXUMA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 17

2020-08-01 10:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 010851 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...CENTER OF ISAIAS APPROACHING ANDROS ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 77.1W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF NASSAU ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida * Northwestern Bahamas * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 77.1 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the Central Bahamas this morning, near or over the Northwestern Bahamas later today and near the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday, and and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane during this time. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the Central Bahamas and will spread over the Northwestern Bahamas later today. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. From Friday night through Tuesday: South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches. Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 17

2020-08-01 10:51:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 010851 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HALLANDALE BEACH TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 77.1W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 70SE 30SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 45SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 77.1W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 76.6W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.0N 78.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.3N 79.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.6N 79.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.1N 80.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 31.2N 79.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 34.0N 77.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 41.5N 71.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 47.5N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 77.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-08-01 10:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010832 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 Satellite images indicate that only a small area of deep convection remains with the depression, and the center is partially exposed on the southeastern edge of the thunderstorms. The initial wind speed is kept 30 kt based on persistence. It seems like the chance for the depression to become a tropical storm has passed with it now moving over cooler waters into a drier air mass. Thus weakening is forecast, and the system will likely degenerate into a remnant low later today. The depression continues moving northwestward, and that course should persist today before turning towards the west-northwest around a larger cyclonic gyre on Sunday. A slight northward adjustment has been made to the forecast, a bit south of the GFS model. All of the model guidance dissipate the small low within 36 hours, so this is indicated in the new forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 17.8N 21.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 19.2N 23.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/0600Z 20.5N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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