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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-21 10:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210835 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 Conventional and scatterometer satellite data indicate that Douglas has continued to strengthen, although cloud tops have recently begun to warm. A well-defined CDO, along with a curved convective band in the western semicircle, has developed, and an earlier SSMI/S overpass suggested that a primitive eye feature may be developing. The initial intensity of 50 kt is based on a 0506Z ASCAT-A pass that showed a small area of winds to 45 kt located less than 15 nmi northeast of the center. This intensity is supported by a consensus T3.0/45-kt estimate from TAFB and SAB, and an upward-trending UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate of T3.2/49 kt. The symmetrical 34-kt wind radii are based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. The initial motion estimate remains west-southwestward or 255/12 kt. A ridge located between TD-07E to the north and Douglas to the south is expected to keep the latter cyclone moving west-southwestward into Tuesday morning. After that time, the global and regional models are forecasting the ridge to weaken and retreat eastward faster than originally expected, resulting in Douglas turning west-northwestward in 36-48 h. As a result of this more poleward motion, the new NHC official track forecast was shifted north of the previous advisory track, but not as far north as the some of the consensus models and the ECMWF model, which is the northernmost track in the NHC model guidance suite. Although Douglas should remain in a favorable low-shear-high-SST environment for the next 72 h, which would typically favor rapid intensification, the small cyclone will be battling occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air. Such an intrusion appears to be occurring now based on the recent cloud-top warming that has been observed. Thus, only gradual strengthening, with brief periods of arrested development, is expected for the next 3 days. On days 4 and 5, the cyclone will be moving over 25-deg-C SSTs and into an even drier airmass, a negative combination that is expected to induce a slow weakening trend. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies between the consensus models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 13.0N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 12.5N 124.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 12.2N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 12.3N 129.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 13.0N 132.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 14.2N 134.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 15.4N 137.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 17.0N 143.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 17.8N 148.9W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-07-21 10:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 210835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 122.8W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 122.8W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 122.2W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.5N 124.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 12.2N 127.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.3N 129.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.0N 132.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.2N 134.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.4N 137.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 143.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.8N 148.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 122.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-21 04:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 745 WTPZ43 KNHC 210235 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 Satellite data indicate that the cyclone is strengthening. The system now has a small but well organized central dense overcast with curved bands on the west side of the circulation. All of the satellite intensity estimates are of tropical storm strength, and based on that data the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Douglas. The tropical storm is moving west-southwestward at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge situated to the north of Douglas off the northern Baja California coast should cause the storm to gradually turn westward during the next couple of days and then west-northwestward beyond that time. The models are in good agreement on this scenario, and only small changes were made to the previous prediction. Douglas is expected to be in quite favorable conditions of low vertical wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and warm SSTs during the next few days. Given these conducive environmental conditions and the storm's improved and compact structure, steady or possibly even rapid strengthening is possible during that time period. After a few days, however, a combination of higher shear, slightly cooler waters, and drier air should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the higher end of the guidance. This forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening in the short term and more weakening at the end of the period compared to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 13.1N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 12.5N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 12.0N 125.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 11.9N 128.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 12.3N 130.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 13.2N 133.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 14.2N 136.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 15.9N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 16.6N 147.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Douglas Public Advisory Number 3
2020-07-21 04:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 210234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 121.6W ABOUT 1025 MI...1645 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 121.6 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly faster westward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Douglas is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-07-21 04:34:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 210234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0300 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 3(32) X(32) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 1(31) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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