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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-07-21 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 212035 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 40.4W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 40.4W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 40.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 10.1N 41.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 10.3N 43.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.3N 46.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.4N 49.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.6N 51.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 11.0N 54.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 12.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 13.5N 68.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 40.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Seven-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-07-21 16:38:46| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2020
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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-07-21 16:38:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 211438 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 A recent SSMIS microwave pass indicated that Douglas's low-level center is located very near the head of a broken band of convection which curls around the southern, western, and northern side of the circulation. This center is also now embedded beneath a Central Dense overcast in infrared imagery, near an area of cold overshooting cloud tops. TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications have both risen to T3.5, and Douglas's initial intensity is therefore raised to 55 kt. Douglas continues to dip west-southwestward, or 255/13 kt, due to strong mid-level ridging to its north. A mid- to upper-level low located northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is forecast to retrograde westward over the next few days, which will allow the ridge to take on a more east-west orientation. As a result, Douglas is expected to turn westward later today and then move west-northwestward beginning overnight Wednesday into the weekend. The track guidance all agrees on this scenario, but there are some speed differences, bookended by slower GFS and HWRF solutions and a faster ECMWF solution. Overall, however, the new NHC forecast remains very close to the multi-model consensus aids, and no significant changes were made compared to the previous forecast, except maybe a slight northward adjustment on days 4 and 5. The low-shear, warm sea surface temperature environment within which Douglas is moving is a recipe for continued strengthening, potentially at a rapid rate, for the next 48 hours. The intensity guidance has been trending higher, and the latest SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are highlighting the increased chance of RI. For example, there is currently a 50/50 shot that Douglas's winds will increase by 25 kt within the next 24 hours, and a 40-50 percent chance of a 30-kt increase during that period. Based on this guidance, the new HCCA and Florida State Superensemble solutions, and the intensity consensus, the NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous cycle and now shows Douglas becoming a hurricane later today with a higher peak occurring in about 2 days. Since oceanic heat content falls to zero along Douglas's path by day 3, some gradual weakening is shown in the latter stages of the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 12.4N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 12.1N 126.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 12.1N 128.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 12.6N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 13.6N 133.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 14.9N 136.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 16.1N 139.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 18.0N 145.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 18.5N 151.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Seven-E Public Advisory Number 6
2020-07-21 16:38:19| Tropical Depression LIDIA
...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... Location: 19.3°N 134.1°W Max sustained: 35 mph Moving: W at 13 mph Min pressure: 1009 mb Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2020
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Seven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-07-21 16:38:19| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020
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speed
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